Friday, August 31, 2007

How a Sleepy Oil Giant Became a World Player - WSJ.com

How a Sleepy Oil Giant Became a World Player - WSJ.com

My Comments:

As this article points out, Petrobras is a success story, benefiting in part, from Chavez intervention of PDVSA. However, you could have read the same success story about PDVSA 10 years ago (prior to Chavez). The point is that all it takes is populist - left wing President to destroy this success story. It is not far-fetched to imagine a "Chavez style" government in Brazil. Look at Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba, and to a lesser extent Argentina and almost Mexico (if Lopez-Obrador would have won)

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Gauging the Impact of Immigration

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Gauging the Impact of Immigration

This is completely incosistent with all studies on the economic impact.

Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) prior to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel — when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami’s economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy’s needs.

Comment by Carlos Erban - August 30, 2007 at 3:12 pm

Poverty in U.S. might get worse - 08/30/2007 - MiamiHerald.com

Poverty in U.S. might get worse - 08/30/2007 - MiamiHerald.com

My comments:
Unfortunately, so many comments are racists against us, Hispanics, wether we are legal or not, but even if you hate Hispanics, we can save Social Security. Also, we are almost Italians (ie. Latins) ? the largest group that came through Ellis Island.

Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) priort to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel -- when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami's economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy's needs.


Posted by: Carlos Erban

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Economics Blog : Fed Paper Looks at Yield Curve-Recession Connection

Economics Blog : Fed Paper Looks at Yield Curve-Recession Connection

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : FAQs on Immigration Enforcement

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : FAQs on Immigration Enforcement

My Comments:
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowes unemployment levels ever below 5%. Further, these 12 million undocumented workers — mostly between 20-40 years old — can save Social Security. Since z-visa registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card), the net effect can be billions of dollars. Even if you hate us Hispanics, you can take economic advantage from this reform. We are almost Italians (ie. Latins) — the largest group that came through Ellis Island. Win-Win-Win!

Comment by Carlos Erban - August 29, 2007 at 2:23 pm

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Herald: Tales of Survival, Jan. 27, 2005



Posted on Thu, Jan. 27, 2005
TALES OF SURVIVAL

60 years after Auschwitz

BY SARA OLKON

solkon@herald.com

When the Red Army arrived to free prisoners at the Nazis' Auschwitz concentration camp in Poland 60 years ago today, the liberation held little meaning, at first, to those who had somehow survived.
Jan. 27, 1945, was simply another day in hell for people who had been isolated, forced on death marches or enslaved at munitions plants.
Liberation gave way to a new set of horrors: survivor's guilt. The knowledge that loved ones were dead or the uncertainty of not knowing. There was crippling illness. Often, they found, strangers had stolen their homes.
The Herald talked to some South Floridians who were prisoners at one time in Auschwitz, as well as a soldier who helped liberate a Nazi work camp, about the anniversary.
• Arno Erban

• Morris Rosenblat

• Kathy Berger

• Halina Laster

• Warren Melgaard and Leo Rosner
South Florida Commemorations
The Simon Wiesenthal Center will hold two candle-lighting programs. The commemorations are free, but reservations are suggested. Each program will be followed by a screening of the film Unlikely Heroes, which documents lesser-known stories of men and women who resisted the Nazis during World War II.
• Today: 7:15 p.m., Temple Beth Sholom, 4144 Chase Ave., Miami Beach. Call 305-538-7231.
• Feb. 2: 7:15 p.m., Temple Beth El, 333 SW Fourth Ave., Boca Raton. Call 561-391-8900.

Posted on Thu, Jan. 27, 2005





ARNO ERBAN

Arno Erban remembers concrete rows and the clunk of heavy boots at Auschwitz.
He remembers 3 a.m. head counts and rubber clubs, icy barracks where he slept across other angry bodies, as feet kicked at his shrunken face and torso. He remembers the smell of burning flesh and hair.
Erban was sent from Auschwitz to Jaworzno to Terezin. His liberation, falling about the same time Auschwitz was freed, is a jumbled blur. There had been gunfire outside for three days and two nights.
It was sunrise when Erban and some 30 other prisoners saw tanks coming in over the horizon. They sat together in their filthy and frailed prison garb and waited. At the time, the six-foot-tall Czech-native weighed 75 pounds.
''We didn't know who it was,'' said Erban, now 82. ``Then we heard some noise, words. We knew it wasn't in German.''
Russian soldiers handed out small bags of sugar and tins of lard and brought the prisoners to a nearby hospital. The first question at the door: Are you Jewish?
Hospital staff wanted to keep the Jews and non-Jews separate, Erban said from his home in Miami Beach.
Gun battles broke out again outside the rural hospital. Doctors, nurses and most of the Poles fled. Erban and the others went to nearby farms and begged for food.
``I was liberated several times. I died several times.''

Herald: Portrait of Terezin survivors, Nov. 14, 2004





Posted on Sun, Nov. 14, 2004

 


 

Portraits of Terezin survivors


BY ELINOR J. BRECHER

ebrecher@herald.com

Arno Erban holds a slim volume with a decaying spine, its pink pages graced with handwritten script so elegant and disciplined that it appears computer-generated.

Baudelaire. Kipling. The Czech lyric poet Josef Hora.

Erban doesn't remember which of the boys he cared for at Terezin Home No. 9 transcribed the poems -- there were hundreds -- but he points to the place where Hora's Thanks to the Fire ends in the middle of a line. Right there, says Erban, ``they took the boy to transport.''

To Auschwitz, the death camp, where millions perished in the gas chambers, their remains blasted skyward as fetid smoke through the crematoria chimneys.

Erban was little more than a boy himself when he entered the surreal world of Terezin in January 1942 at 19. Perhaps because he'd been active in the Boy Scouts and YMCA in Prague, he became house master of Home No. 9, a barrack with triple-deck wooden bunks, a table, and a handful of chairs.

For the two years until he was deported to the Auschwitz-Birkenau death complex in Poland, he was a teacher and father figure to boys ages 13-15.

They studied literature and math, played soccer and chess, wrote poems and painted pictures. Erban established a structure based on scouting, with points for good performance in everything from bed making to choir.

He insisted on respect for self and others, and daily good deeds. So when he saw two of his boys carrying a dead body on a stretcher to help out two old men, they got good-deed points for the day.

Home No. 9 didn't house the same 40 boys from beginning to end. Erban, now 82, never knew when the day started if any of his boys would succumb to a ''selection'' -- a euphemism for the death sentence of a transport to ``the east.''

Those selected went to the left; the others to the right.

''We don't know who was luckier,'' he says.

For his birthday in 1943, the boys gave him the book of poems, on paper stolen from the Nazis. They drew the beaver symbol of their scouting ''troop,'' and a dozen or so signed autographed the pages.

A few survived.

After Auschwitz, Erban survived the Geliweicz and Jaworzno camps, death marches, starvation and disease. He stood six feet tall and weighed 75 pounds when he was liberated by the Russian army in January 1945, and couldn't walk for three months.

For his role in the Terezin underground -- making contact with Czech resistance fighters outside the camp -- he became one of 18 civilians awarded the Czech Iron Cross after World War II.

He has three living children and one grandchild. He and his wife, Yolanda, have a bayfront flat in Miami Beach and a home in Caracas, where Erban settled after the war.

A retired accountant and secular Jew, he frequently speaks to Miami-Dade County students on the Holocaust. Given the popularity of body art these days, he chuckles that some kids think the B13126 tattoo on his left arm is ``cool.''

As he watches the Terezin documentary, he smiles at familiar scenes and faces, yet wonders if anyone who wasn't there can understand Hitler's insidious fiction.

* * *

The following are excerpts from a speech Erban gave at a reunion with some of his surviving ''boys'' on June 26, 1994, in Prague:

The boys were all different on arrival and looking so much alike very soon after. Some came from big cities, children of wealthy families; some came from a small village. Some came from a religious family. Some of them didn't know they were Jews.

This place became their home. They learned to love each other because that was their new family . . .

The part of my life as a leader of so-called 'home for children in captivity' now appears as a dream, distant and unrealistic.
I am certain that this was the most important phase of my life, both hard and most constructive. For more than two years, my only thoughts were the boys who were in my care. I tried to give them reason to live in spite of the jail environment. If it were not so sad and hopeless, certainly it would have give me much great personal satisfaction. Unfortunately, the final result of all these efforts ended so tragically. . .

We tried to create something noble and sincere in that tragic environment full of lies and danger, something that despite all the German efforts to make slaves of us, allow us to remain human with clear moral ideals and a firm basis to start normal lives, interrupted by so many years.''

Friday, August 24, 2007

Mr. Chávez’s Power Grab - New York Times

Mr. Chávez’s Power Grab - New York Times

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Democrats Set to Impose Penalties Against Florida for Primary

Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Democrats Set to Impose Penalties Against Florida for Primary

My comments:
I think the DNC should tread very carefully how they treat Florida Democrats — a fast growing minority. This may be (as it was during Bush-Gore) the deciding state to win the Presidential election. Many Democrats in Florida are energized with the Iraq, Health Care, and Immigration issues. As a results, many Independents and young Cuban-Americans are considering voting for the first time for a Democrat.

Comment by Carlos Erban - August 24, 2007 at 12:58 pm

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Oppenheimer "HOW TO DERAIL CHAVEZ'S POWER GRAB"

Blogger: The Oppenheimer Report on Latin America - Post a Comment

My Comments:
I have voted in every election process, signed and re-signed the petition for referendum, every single time against Chavez. Although I made line for 10 hours for the referendum and 6 hours for the last elections at the Venezuelan Consulate in Miami, it easy for me to do so because I live in the U.S. and do not work directly or indirectly for the Venezuelan Government. However, many millions of people who would vote against Chavez are afraid to do so.
First, there is the “cheat” factor. As demonstrated by Professors Housemann from Harvard and Rigobon from MIT in their “ Cisne Negro” study, the referendum results were manipulated at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=
Second, there is the “scare” factor. In my view, this factor could have turned the elections to Rosales if everyone would have voted without being scared for retribution. I am sure you are familiar with the “capta huellas” (digital finger print) used to link the who voted for whom at the polls. You also can find the MaiSanta-Tascon list of all the people who signed the referendum. They cannot work for any Government institution or worse yet cannot even get the necessary permits to operate a private enterprise. You can find the list and the video where Chavez threatens anyone “signing” at http://www.megaresistencia.com/. You can also find in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=the video filmed at PDVSA where employees where threaten to be fired by the President Ramirez if they did not vote for Chavez.
I wish you would mention these factors in your article so that your readers know what we are up against.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Kirchner: "Por primera vez se combate en serio la corrupción"

Kirchner: "Por primera vez se combate en serio la corrupción"

Mi comentario:
Es interesante contrastar la reaccion de Kirchner con la de Chavez en cuanto la maleta con los $800,000. Lo mas comico fue eschuchar de los Chavistas que Antonini Wilson era de la Oposicion. Desde cuando viajan empresarios de la Oposicion con altos funcionarios del Gobierno Venezolano en un avion privado? Ya salio en el Herald que "Su socio en esta firma es Abad Wladimir, cuyo nombre coincide con el del secretario de American Food Grain, una filial de una importante holding privada de Venezuela (Proarepa) que ha sido favorecida por el gobierno venezolano con millonarios contratos para programas de distribución de alimentos subsidiados."

Impact of Mortgage Crisis Spreads - WSJ.com

Impact of Mortgage Crisis Spreads - WSJ.com

Veneconomia: "Por culpa de tantos "millarditos" (el BCV esta casi en la quiebra)

Ha pasado mucha agua bajo el puente desde aquél domingo 9 de noviembre de 2003, cuando Hugo Chávez pidió al Banco Central desde su Aló Presidente el primer "millardito" de las reservas, para financiar un inestructurado plan de reactivación del aparato agrícola.
Desde entonces, el Banco Central de Venezuela ha traspasado $17,05 millardos al Fondo de Desarrollo Nacional (Fonden). Esta sangría de las reservas del país está llevando a la quiebra técnica al Banco Central de Venezuela.
El primer traspaso de $6,0 millardos que realizó en 2005 el BCV al Fonden fue contabilizado como un "activo diverso en moneda nacional". Con el paso del tiempo, esa cuenta fue rebautizada como "Fondo transferido al Fonden de Disposición 10° Ley del Banco Central de Venezuela". Lo cierto es que llámenla como la llamen esa cuenta no tenía (ni tiene) respaldo alguno, porque los dólares los tiene Fonden.
El segundo traspaso de $4,0 millardos en 2006 fue correctamente contabilizado como cargo directo al "Patrimonio del Banco".
Este año, el BCV realizó un tercer traspaso por $6,77 millardos, el cual fue contabilizado como una "operación en suspenso", con autorización de la Superintendencia de Bancos (Sudeban) del 18 de julio, fecha posterior al cierre del período (30 de junio).
El punto es que si se dan por incobrables estos $6,77 millardos, y se le suman los $6,0 millardos que registra el Balance del BCV al 30 de junio de la cuenta "fondo transferido al Fonden", el banco quedaría con un patrimonio negativo de Bs.18,4 billones (= $8,5 millardos). Es decir, el BCV estaría técnicamente quebrado.
Según la Ley, cualquier déficit patrimonial del Banco Central debe ser cubierto con los ingresos ordinarios del Gobierno Central. No obstante, esto sería muy difícil de cumplir (por decirlo suavemente) ya que el monto que se adeuda representa el 16% del Presupuesto del Gobierno Central de este año.
Ante esta dramática realidad, se deben buscar otras opciones para solventar la situación del BCV.
Una sería que el Fonden devolviera los dólares recibidos hasta ahora. Esto obviamente es imposible de concretar pues ese dinero está más que comprometido.
Otra sería hacer lo que sugiere el ex director del BCV, Domingo Maza Zavala, o sea, emitir bonos para compensar el déficit. El problema con esto es que el monto involucrado significaría un incremento de la deuda pública en 20%, lo que sería ilegal por cuanto el BCV terminaría financiando el déficit del Fisco, algo que prohíbe tajantemente la Constitución de 1999.
Maza Zavala también mencionó la posibilidad de amortizar la pérdida con las utilidades cambiarias futuras. Aunque suene terrible, esta opción pareciera ser la más viable: VenEconomía piensa que Venezuela está a las puertas de una devaluación de hasta Bs.3.000:$, lo que representaría una ganancia cambiaria de Bs.21 billones, monto más que suficiente para que se salden las cuentas.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Our Jerusalem.com -

Our Jerusalem.com -

Terezin Studies

Herald: HOLOCAUST STORIES - III by Arno Erban

HOLOCAUST STORIES - III

Herald: "Argentina probes Venezuelan's suitcase of cash"

Miami Article Comments

Kirchner seemed ashamed and immediately fired the Deputy Planning Minister on the private airplane, who was in charge of negotiating all the "deals" with Venezuela. Why doesn't Chavez fire the Venezuelan officials from PDVSA on the airplane? May be because he is not ashamed. There has always been corruption by Government officials in Venezuela. The difference now is that they go unpunished even when they are caught "redhanded". Why doesn't somebody ask where did he get $800,000 in cash and what was it for? I don't think it was to go shopping for leather apparel in Buenos Aires! Chavez is the best example, embezzling the country's funds for his "friends" (Fidel, Kirchner, Morales, Correa, Ahmadinejad, and Ortega, while Carlos Andres Perez (previous President) was impeached for the same thing on his first offense. That's the difference between a Democracy with Rule of Law, and a Dictatorship where a Tyrant does what he wants and everyone is scared to tell him otherwise!

Posted by: Carlos Erban

8/9/2007 8:55 PM
3270.10 Report as Violation

Wilfredo Avila, funcionario de protocolo de la petrolera venezolana - eluniversal.com

Nacional y Política - eluniversal.com

Mi comentario:
Kirshner despide los funcionarios Argentinos en el avion, por que Chavez no hace lo mismo con los funcionarios de PDVSA? La diferencia entre Chavez y los anteriores en cuanto a la corrupcion, es que nisiquiera se castigan a los corruptos que descrubren con "las manos en la masa." Por que nadie pregunta de donde saco esa cantidad de dinero en efectivo y para quien era ese dinero? No creo que era para sus compras en B. Aires.

Herald: "Migrants agree: It's harder to get jobs"

Miami Article Comments

My comments:
As Mr. Buchanan said a few years back on Larry King, if the "illegals" were Irish then it would be a different story. However, we do not know how widespread is racism against Hispanics. I am an American citizen who has lived in the U.S. for over 20 years, and for the first time, I can say that I have felt racism against Hispanics. The worst part is that the bigotry is well-accepted and politically correct these days. Listen to Mr. Tancredo -- an Italian descent -- he refers to Hispanics, illegals or legals as an inferior race. How would his ancestors feel when they were discriminated against? Did his ancestors learn English right away? Racism is not accepted for Jews or Blacks, but it is certainly accepted for Hispanics and Muslims. Let's have a debate about Immigration Reform (pros, cons, effect on the Economy, Social Security, etc.) but please keep the racists out of it. They don't care if a Hispanic is legal or illegal, or born in this country for that matter.

Posted by: Carlos Erban

8/9/2007 1:55 PM

Monday, August 6, 2007

"Se Estanca el Progreso con los Mas Probres" (?)

Economía - eluniversal.com
------------
My Comments:

A misleading title to the poverty levels. Here are the facts from the article:

- Overall poverty level has decreased from 29.3% in 1999 to 23.4% in 2006 (-20%)
- Extreme poverty decreased from 9.9% to 9% since 1999 (-9%)

Although some expected a much higher reduction given the 3-4 times higher oil revenues, a 20% reduction on overall and 9% in critical poverty levels is not "a Stagnation on the Progress among Poor"

Mis Comentarios:

Un titulo enganoso sobre el nivel de pobreza: Aqui estan los datos del articulo:
- El nivel total de probreza se redujo de 29.3% en 1999 a 23.4% en 2006 (-20%)
- Extrema pobreza se redujo de 9.9% a 9% desde 1999(-9%)

Aunque algunos esperaban una reduccion mucho mayor dado que los ingresos petroleros son 3-4 veces mas, una reduccion de la pobreza del 20% y de la critica del 9% no es que "Se Estanca el Progreson con los Mas Pobres"

Friday, August 3, 2007

Risky Business? Protecting Foreign Investments — HBS Working Knowledge

Risky Business? Protecting Foreign Investments — HBS Working Knowledge

Harvard Commencement 2007 videos (Gates, Clinton)

Harvard Commencement 2007

Porter, Hammel, and Kramer video McKinsey Awards

Harvard Business Online

Baseball ingrained in slugger Cabrera's blood - USATODAY.com

Baseball ingrained in slugger Cabrera's blood - USATODAY.com

Terezin & Auschwitz Essays by Arno Erban

American Czech-Slovak Cultural Club - Terazin & Auschwitz

Comment left on article about Hugo Chavez [truckdriver.blog-city.com]

Comment left on article about Hugo Chavez [truckdriver.blog-city.com]

BW: Companies' Love-Hate Relationship with Chavez

JUNE 25, 2007

GLOBAL BUSINESS
By Geri Smith

A Love-Hate Relationship With Chávez
Companies are chafing under the fiery socialist. But in some respects, business has never been better


Just how hard is it to do business in Venezuela? As President Hugo Chávez leads his country toward "21st century socialism," hardly a day passes without another change in the rules restricting companies. Want to export? First get government certification that there's no domestic shortage of your product. Want to import? Prove that the goods aren't available locally. Chávez has already forced global oil giants, phone carriers, and power companies to hand over control of key assets. Now he says he might nationalize banks, hospitals, and steel companies. No wonder foreign direct investment, which averaged $3.2 billion annually during Chávez's first three years in office, plunged to a net outflow of $2.6 billion last year. "It's a bit like the...French Revolution," says Edmond J. Saade, president of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VenAmCham). "Power to the people, death to the nobility.'"

No doubt, Venezuela is a pretty scary place to invest these days. But in some respects business is better than ever. Thanks to soaring oil revenues, Chávez is spending heavily--some $13.3 billion last year alone--to win support for his "Bolivarian Revolution." For the past three years the economy has grown at an 11%-to-12% clip, while consumption has expanded by 18% annually. The poor, 58% of all Venezuelans, have seen their meager household incomes more than double since 2004 thanks to cash stipends, subsidized food, and scholarships from the government's social-development programs. The result: Sales of everything from basics such as Coca-Cola (KO ) and Crest toothpaste to big-ticket items like Ford (F )SUVs and Mercedes-Benz (DCX ) sedans have taken off.

You might call it business' love-hate relationship with Chávez. Local and foreign companies alike are raking in more money than ever in Venezuela. Two-way trade between the U.S. and Venezuela has never been higher. Venezuela exported more than $42 billion to the U.S. last year, including 1 million barrels of oil daily, and imported $9 billion worth of American goods, up 41% from 2005. But since Chávez declared President George W. Bush Public Enemy No. 1, Americans prefer to keep a low profile, even though VenAmCham's 1,100 member companies account for more than 650,000 jobs. "Consumption has been going through the roof, and commercial relations between the U.S. and Venezuela are still workable, but on the political front there is confrontation," says Saade. "American business is caught in the middle."

UNDENIABLE POTENTIAL
Even global oil companies-- Chavez's chief targets so far--are likely to stay put. Although they have been forced to turn over control of their projects to the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Chávez can't afford to alienate them. Ventures involving foreign companies account for 40% of Venezuela's output of 2.4 million barrels a day. For the multinational oil giants, the country is too important to ignore, even if it means they no longer call the shots. "Venezuela's oil potential is so great," says a foreign oil executive who declined to be identified. "We're not making huge returns, but it's not a financial black hole, either."

Other industries are not only putting up with Chávez but also benefiting directly from his programs. Take Intel Corp.: Sales of its microprocessors in Venezuela jumped by 15% in 2006 and look set to grow at the same pace this year as the government equips schools and public offices with new computers. In December, Caracas started a joint venture with China's Lanchao Group to manufacture low-cost machines called "Bolivarian PCs." The venture, 60% owned by Lanchao, will produce 80,000 computers in Venezuela the first year and 150,000 in 2008, including a stripped-down desktop model that will cost $450. Intel says the government alone could buy as many as 300,000 computers. "There's a lot of money in the Venezuelan market now, and it's important to take advantage of that," says Guillermo Deffit, Intel's business-development manager in Venezuela.

Sales of cars and cola are booming, too. Ford and General Motors Corp. (GM ) have manufactured cars in Venezuela for nearly a half-century, but with the strength of the bolivar, imports of pricier models such as the Ford Expedition sport-utility vehicle and GM's Silverado pickup are on the rise. Last year, Ford's sales increased 52%, to nearly 62,000 cars and trucks, as its imports more than tripled, to 28,000. GM's sales jumped 21% last year, to 71,000 vehicles, and so far this year are on track to climb by 50%. And sales of Coke and other beverages made by bottler Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF ) in Venezuela jumped 25% in the first quarter of 2007, in spite of a two-day shutdown of the company's distribution center in March for a surprise audit by tax authorities.

AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
For local companies that have managed to survive Chávez's ever-changing business rules, the fast-growing economy offers some small solace--but few guarantees for the future. "We have fewer competitors every year because people throw in the towel," says the owner of a family company that provides raw materials for a variety of industries. He declined to give his name, fearing government retaliation, but he says his profit margins are getting fatter as he faces less competition. Still, his company has shrunk to just 100 employees from 300 since Chávez came to power in 1999, and sales have fallen by half. Dozens of his friends have left the country in recent years, and one of his top managers is decamping soon for Florida, where many middle-class Venezuelans have made their homes. But he's determined to stick it out.

As Chávez continues his socialist crusade, there are signs of rising discontent: A recent decision to revoke a popular TV network's license sparked outrage among university students, who took to the streets in early June. And the consumption boom is fueling inflation, now running at 18% annually. In any event, the fiery President can hardly do without business. Private companies account for half the government's nonoil tax receipts and 83% of jobs, says Ruth de Krivoy, a former Central Bank president who runs Síntesis Financiera, a Caracas think tank. "The government believes that state-run companies...will take the place of the exploiting' business class," she notes. "But if you erase the private sector from the map, what do you have left? Not much."




Geri L. Smith is BusinessWeek’s Mexico City bureau manager.

Immigration Polling - Most Americans support reform

Immigration

Open Collections Program: Immigration to the United States, 1789-1930

Open Collections Program: Immigration to the United States, 1789-1930

Zeta: Yankees Go Home, Pedro Penzini

Yankees go home! / Pedro Penzini L.

Revista Zeta / Miércoles, Julio 25, 2007

Bajo la sombra de ocho aviones rusos Sukhoi 30, que sobrevolaron las instalaciones petroleras para celebrar la toma de la faja petrolera del Orinoco, ya al grito de "abajo el imperio norteamericano" el presidente Hugo Chávez signó el destino energético del país. "El proceso de la apertura petrolera fue un "intento del imperialismo de adueñarse para siempre de la más grande reserva del mundo".

Una de las consecuencias fue la decisión de irse del país tomada por dos trasnacionales petroleras estadounidenses: la ExxonMobil y ConocoPhillips. Las negociaciones hasta ahora no han ido por buen camino, sobretodo por el lenguaje del presidente venezolano quien quizás no ha entendido la magnitud que representa enemistarse con estos gigantes petroleros.

Wall Street ya da por descontado que Exxon y Conoco serán compensadas con los activos de Citgo en los EEUU. Venezuela ha comenzado a mostrar preocupación por el destino de sus activos en EEUU por lo que el embajador venezolano Bernardo Álvarez, realizó un viaje de buena voluntad a Texas tratando de bajar el tono del lenguaje hostil y comenzar a tener un trato mas diplomático con estas empresas.

"Hemos demostrado que somos gente de diálogo ¿?. Nadie quiere ir al arbitraje". "Quizá lo que verán sea un reajuste de la relación" "Nos necesitamos el uno al otro" dijo Álvarez demostrando que quizás subestimaron a estos dos gigantes petroleros. A continuación haremos un análisis de quienes son estas dos empresas y porque quizás fue un error haberlas despedido.

EXXON DISPARA EL DJIA A 14.000

Pareciera que los mercados internacionales celebraron la salida de ExxonMobil y de ConocoPhillips de Venezuela ya que ambas acciones se dispararon después de conocerse la noticia logrando nuevos altos históricos superando los $90 por acción.

El índice Dow Jones de Industriales, principal indicador de Wall Street, rompió la barrera de los 14.000 puntos, animado por los resultados empresariales y el descenso de los precios mayoristas en Estados Unidos. Uno de los principales componentes de las 30 empresas que componen este importantísimo índice las cuales son seleccionadas por el equipo editorial del Wall Street Journal es precisamente ExxonMobil.

No solamente ExxonMobil hizo la mayor contribución al aumento del índice Dow Jones sino también ha colaborado significativamente al índice Standard and Poor's 500 durante el mercado alcista actual. La acción se ha disparado 173% desde el 9 de octubre del 2002, añadiendo 38.4 puntos al índice y ahora representa 3.7% del valor de mercado del S&P 500.

Según los analistas el alza de las acciones se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años. Pero algunos analistas de Wall Street opinan que el mercado ya da por descontando que Exxon y ConocoPhillips podrían terminar apoderándose de los activos de CITGO en los EEUU incluyendo las codiciadas refinerías en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco.

Exxon vale más de $500,000 millones. Según el Nuevo Herald de Miami Exxon Mobil Corp., la empresa petrolera fundada por John D. Rockefeller en 1882 ya se convirtió en la única compañía cotizada con un valor superior al medio billón de dólares. Las acciones de Exxon Mobil subieron a un nivel que ha elevando la capitalización de mercado de la compañía de Irving, estado de Texas, a $50507,607 millones.

Eso es más que la producción económica anual conjunta de Finlandia, Argentina y Kazajstán. . Exxon es el ejemplo clásico de lo que debe ser una empresa petrolera occidental integrada y el aumento de precio en las acciones ciertamente sugiere que hay que inverir en el sector de la energía.

Según el Herald los beneficios de los productores de crudo y gas natural se han disparado conforme aumentaba la demanda, estimulada por el crecimiento económico global, particularmente en China y Estados Unidos.

Un cuello de botella en la capacidad de refinación de EEUU también ha acrecentado las ganancias de compañías integradas como Exxon Mobil que producen, procesan y comercializan petróleo. El margen de ganancia promedio al convertir un barril de petróleo en gasolina y combustible de calefacción fue de $23.68 en el segundo trimestre, frente a $5.13 hace cinco años.

LA SUERTE DE CONOCO

Según el portal Descifrado los altos precios de ambas acciones reflejan que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose.

Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) ¨le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.

Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados. Conoco ya estimó sus pérdidas por su salida de Venezuela en unos 4 mil 500 millones de dólares.



LA LISTA GLOBAL 500 DE FORTUNE

La revista Fortune acaba de publicar su lista anual ¨the Global 500¨ en la que realizan un ranking entre las 500 empresas mas rentables del mundo. Este año Exxon Mobil coronó el primer lugar como la empresa de mayor rentabilidad pero obtuvo el segundo lugar en ingresos siendo superada por WallMart . Ninguna empresa venezolana aparece entre las afortunadas 500 y tan sólo dos países latinoamericanos aparecen en la lista con 5 empresas cada una: Méjico y Brasil.

Llama la atención que PDVSA ya no aparece entre estas 500 empresas y ni siquiera fue mencionada entre las listas de la petroleras mas importantes del mundo cuando apenas pocos años atrás era considerada una de las mejores del mundo ubicándose en los primeros lugares en el ranking de las Global 500 de Fortune. Peor aun es la información revelada por Ramón Espinasa de que: ¨PDVSA esta en caída libre¨ .

Según reveló un informe la producción de crudos ha bajado sostenidamente y este año coinciden la reducción de las exportaciones y la disminución de los precios. Espinasa llegó a la conclusión que vaticina un futuro ¨crudo¨para Venezuela: "Si una caída del precio del 9% se combina con un descenso de las exportaciones en un volumen de 15%, el ingreso petrolero del gobierno bajará un 50% ".

INFORME TÉCNICO

Las utilidades de Exxon Mobil continuaron creciendo en el 2007 gracias a los altos precios del crudo. Sus utilidades subieron 9.3% a $ 39.5 millardos rompiendo su propio record de la lista Global 500 de Fortune que ella misma impuso el año pasado por $36.1 millardo de utilidades. En cuanto a ConocoPhillips, esta alcanzó el 9 lugar con utilidades de $15.550 millones de dólares.

Desde que Conoco se fusionó con Phillips Petroleum la empresa arrojo un crecimiento de utilidades fantástico: 72% en 2004 y 66% en 2005 por el aumento en los precios del gas natural. Sin embargo el año pasado las utilidades crecieron apenas 15% debido al aumento del suministro de gas natural en los EEUU que presionaron los precios a la baja.

Para ExxonMobil la salida de la faja del Orinoco representa apenas el 1% de sus utilidades y han sido más herméticos con el caso no dando ningún tipo de declaraciones al respecto.

ConocoPhillips es la mas perjudicada con la salida, la tercera empresa petrolera de los EEUU ya reportó una perdida de $4.5 millardos por salir de Venezuela y señaló que las utilidades para el primer trimestre serán menores a las esperadas de aproximadamente $22.8 millardos. Su participación en la faja representaba un 4% del total de las utilidades de la empresa que superaron $800 millardos en el 2006.

WALL STREET

Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente.

Las acciones de la petrolera subieron más de 10 dólares logrando nuevos altos en los precios de la acción superando los 90 dólares al igual que las de Exxon (XOM) . Según los analistas esta subida se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años, pero también han previsto un vuelco positivo para Conoco después de su ruptura con Venezuela.

Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados.

Descifrado, insiste es que en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco, ConocoPhillips podría terminar con activos de Citgo en sus manos, incluyendo refinerías (aunque llegar a este punto podría tardar años). Reflejan además, que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.



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