Economist.com
Hugo Chavez ' Venezuela
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1 comment:
Enjoy this article sent to me by Jose Soto. The graph showing price of oil vs. GDP growth is a little misleading; there should be a footnote for the work stoppage "el paro", which caused the 8-10% contraction. The Economist forecasts 2-3% economic contraction, but ironically the U.S. stimulus package, which should be approved probably next week should increase the price of oil futures in the midst of very cold winter. I disagree that the $12B transfer hurts Venezuela's position that much. It is stimulus financed internally. The international reserves indexed for inflation have roughly doubled in the past 10 years due to the surplus of oil at $90-150. The $42B is still at a very strong level. The key question is if Chavez will devalue the bolivar after the referendum and by how much. It is hard to predict what Chavez will do. Reducing the quota of preferential dollars by half was a clever way of devaluing the dollar by increasing demand and price in the black market.
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