El nuevo enemigo - 12/18/2007 - El Nuevo Herald
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
Argentina's new president makes a misstep - 12/16/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm
Argentina's new president makes a misstep - 12/16/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm
My comments:
Chavez has plummeted to an all time low in terms of support and corruption. My understanding is that Antonini is in "witness protection" program and will probably testify to everything. With the recordings from the FBI, they will have more than enought evidence to show that the money came from Chavez to Kirshner's campaign. By defending Chavez and accusing U.S. of a conspiracy, Kirshner has made her first bad presidential decision. She will be embarrassed in the eyes of the world for supporting Chavez corrupt practices. In spanish we have a saying "dime con quien andas y sabre quien eres" -- tell me who you are with and I will know who you are --- the Kirshners are all the time with Chavez and now overtly support him even when he is about to be proven corrupt.
My comments:
Chavez has plummeted to an all time low in terms of support and corruption. My understanding is that Antonini is in "witness protection" program and will probably testify to everything. With the recordings from the FBI, they will have more than enought evidence to show that the money came from Chavez to Kirshner's campaign. By defending Chavez and accusing U.S. of a conspiracy, Kirshner has made her first bad presidential decision. She will be embarrassed in the eyes of the world for supporting Chavez corrupt practices. In spanish we have a saying "dime con quien andas y sabre quien eres" -- tell me who you are with and I will know who you are --- the Kirshners are all the time with Chavez and now overtly support him even when he is about to be proven corrupt.
Friday, December 7, 2007
El Nacional: Cronica del 2-D por HERNÁN LUGO-GALICIA
* El Presidente ''se sintió engañado'' por el Comando Zamora y atribuyó el fracaso a la Asamblea Nacional El Alto Mando Militar influyó en la decisión 2-D.
A las 7:30 pm, Hugo Chávez se reúne con el Alto Mando Militar y le informa su decisión de esperar 100% de las actas antes de reconocer la derrota. A su lado están Jesse Chacón, Diosdado Cabello, José Albornoz, Miguel Pérez Abad y cuatro oficiales. El vicepresidente Jorge Rodríguez es el ausente. Su misión es mantener al Consejo Nacional Electoral en stand by. La tensión crece en Fuerte Tiuna; se ordena el cierre y acuartelamiento. Un general se levanta y, luego de expresar su respeto al comandante en jefe, le advierte que la Fuerza Armada no saldría a reprimir a la población. Se había señalado que totalizar las actas pudiera implicar cuatro días de zozobra y, por ende, de protestas. "Este país no aguantaría esos días de agitación", le alerta. Chávez observa a todos y se hace un silencio. "Me mintieron, me engañaron", le recrimina a Cabello, porque el Comando Zamora reportó -constantemente- el triunfo del Sí, mientras que los informes de la DIM decían lo contrario. Era un Chávez iracundo, incrédulo ante la primera derrota política en nueve años luego del fracaso militar de 1992, revelaron quienes lo vieron en el Palacio y conocieron detalles de la historia. La culpa -dijo- fue de la Asamblea Nacional. El gobernador de Miranda sólo atina a expresar: "Cuando a usted lo dejen solo, me encontrará a su lado". Cabello es el hombre incondicional del barinés, lo que le ha valido su designación como ministro de Secretaría, director de Conatel, vicepresidente de la República y candidato que derrotó a Enrique Mendoza. La advertencia del oficial, así como los mensajes que desde Maracay, en Aragua, le hicieron llegar militares identificados con el general en jefe retirado Raúl Isaías Baduel, fueron los que le hicieron entender al Presidente que era inconveniente postergar la agonía. Después de una hora de discusión, se convence a Chávez de que el resultado, si bien era reñido, técnicamente favorecía al No. Incluso se hizo que un experto del CNE se trasladara hasta Fuerte Tiuna para que se lo explicara. El funcionario hizo una exposición en la que argumentó que los resultados en los estados con más población harían irreversible la cifra. "Estamos dispuestos a reconocerlo, pero queríamos ver los resultados", dice Cabello. Chávez sólo escucha. No habla. Finalmente, se levanta y se retira a una habitación que tiene asignada en la instalación militar. Permanece allí solo por un largo tiempo. Nadie sabía qué haría. Cuando sale, el Presidente parte nuevamente a Miraflores, donde sus seguidores lo esperan esperanzados de que, a partir de diciembre, tendrán una nueva constitución. Aunque la celebración había sido cancelada, la música arrancó para distraer a los presentes y formar un "muro" en caso de que a "algún alebrestado" se le ocurriera ir al centro del poder con "la operación tenaza", un supuesto plan de la CIA que era dirigido desde la embajada estadounidense ubicada en Valle Arriba, en Caracas. El mismo Chávez confesó, posteriormente, cuando avaló las cifras del CNE, que había cavilado mucho y que admitía su derrota para evitar una angustia mayor, porque habían transcurrido ocho horas desde el cierre de las mesas y el CNE había garantizado que, a más tardar, a dos horas de la cuenta informaría al país, como ocurrió en diciembre de 2006 en las elecciones presidenciales. La jugada buscaba que, internacionalmente, Chávez quedara como un demócrata y, en lo interno, evitar una eventual guerra civil. A las 9:02 pm, Jorge Rodríguez aparece públicamente en la sede provisional del Comando Zamora, en el hotel Alba, y admite que la cuenta estaba reñida; de hecho, cuando el vicepresidente llegó hasta el lugar, la tendencia bajó de 8% a 4% y, cuando terminó su discurso, el margen era de 3%. Para entonces era imposible hacer algo: las mesas estaban cerradas, la maquinaria se había desmovilizado y, como en toda derrota, la soledad ocupaba su lugar al lado del vencido, quien prometió convertirla en una nueva victoria. Un nuevo "por ahora" surgió de los labios de un hábil político y no del idealista que el 4 de febrero de 1992 intentó llegar al poder mediante un golpe de Estado.
Por HERNÁN LUGO-GALICIA hlugo@el-nacional.com El Nacional
A las 7:30 pm, Hugo Chávez se reúne con el Alto Mando Militar y le informa su decisión de esperar 100% de las actas antes de reconocer la derrota. A su lado están Jesse Chacón, Diosdado Cabello, José Albornoz, Miguel Pérez Abad y cuatro oficiales. El vicepresidente Jorge Rodríguez es el ausente. Su misión es mantener al Consejo Nacional Electoral en stand by. La tensión crece en Fuerte Tiuna; se ordena el cierre y acuartelamiento. Un general se levanta y, luego de expresar su respeto al comandante en jefe, le advierte que la Fuerza Armada no saldría a reprimir a la población. Se había señalado que totalizar las actas pudiera implicar cuatro días de zozobra y, por ende, de protestas. "Este país no aguantaría esos días de agitación", le alerta. Chávez observa a todos y se hace un silencio. "Me mintieron, me engañaron", le recrimina a Cabello, porque el Comando Zamora reportó -constantemente- el triunfo del Sí, mientras que los informes de la DIM decían lo contrario. Era un Chávez iracundo, incrédulo ante la primera derrota política en nueve años luego del fracaso militar de 1992, revelaron quienes lo vieron en el Palacio y conocieron detalles de la historia. La culpa -dijo- fue de la Asamblea Nacional. El gobernador de Miranda sólo atina a expresar: "Cuando a usted lo dejen solo, me encontrará a su lado". Cabello es el hombre incondicional del barinés, lo que le ha valido su designación como ministro de Secretaría, director de Conatel, vicepresidente de la República y candidato que derrotó a Enrique Mendoza. La advertencia del oficial, así como los mensajes que desde Maracay, en Aragua, le hicieron llegar militares identificados con el general en jefe retirado Raúl Isaías Baduel, fueron los que le hicieron entender al Presidente que era inconveniente postergar la agonía. Después de una hora de discusión, se convence a Chávez de que el resultado, si bien era reñido, técnicamente favorecía al No. Incluso se hizo que un experto del CNE se trasladara hasta Fuerte Tiuna para que se lo explicara. El funcionario hizo una exposición en la que argumentó que los resultados en los estados con más población harían irreversible la cifra. "Estamos dispuestos a reconocerlo, pero queríamos ver los resultados", dice Cabello. Chávez sólo escucha. No habla. Finalmente, se levanta y se retira a una habitación que tiene asignada en la instalación militar. Permanece allí solo por un largo tiempo. Nadie sabía qué haría. Cuando sale, el Presidente parte nuevamente a Miraflores, donde sus seguidores lo esperan esperanzados de que, a partir de diciembre, tendrán una nueva constitución. Aunque la celebración había sido cancelada, la música arrancó para distraer a los presentes y formar un "muro" en caso de que a "algún alebrestado" se le ocurriera ir al centro del poder con "la operación tenaza", un supuesto plan de la CIA que era dirigido desde la embajada estadounidense ubicada en Valle Arriba, en Caracas. El mismo Chávez confesó, posteriormente, cuando avaló las cifras del CNE, que había cavilado mucho y que admitía su derrota para evitar una angustia mayor, porque habían transcurrido ocho horas desde el cierre de las mesas y el CNE había garantizado que, a más tardar, a dos horas de la cuenta informaría al país, como ocurrió en diciembre de 2006 en las elecciones presidenciales. La jugada buscaba que, internacionalmente, Chávez quedara como un demócrata y, en lo interno, evitar una eventual guerra civil. A las 9:02 pm, Jorge Rodríguez aparece públicamente en la sede provisional del Comando Zamora, en el hotel Alba, y admite que la cuenta estaba reñida; de hecho, cuando el vicepresidente llegó hasta el lugar, la tendencia bajó de 8% a 4% y, cuando terminó su discurso, el margen era de 3%. Para entonces era imposible hacer algo: las mesas estaban cerradas, la maquinaria se había desmovilizado y, como en toda derrota, la soledad ocupaba su lugar al lado del vencido, quien prometió convertirla en una nueva victoria. Un nuevo "por ahora" surgió de los labios de un hábil político y no del idealista que el 4 de febrero de 1992 intentó llegar al poder mediante un golpe de Estado.
Por HERNÁN LUGO-GALICIA hlugo@el-nacional.com El Nacional
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Venezuela opposition's victory larger than it seems - 12/04/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
Venezuela opposition's victory larger than it seems - 12/04/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
My comments:
I agree that the margin was larger. The CNE (Electoral Arbiter) and Chavez claimed that the results were irreversible with 88% of the vote. with a 1.4% pts. margin. If you do a quick calculation, Chavez could still win with 56%+ of the remaining vote (he won in 8 states by at least that amount). I have a hard time believing that Chavez would accept (even under pressure) unless they demonstrated to him that he could not win mathematically. The real difference is probably between 4-6%. Also, polls show that the vast majority of those who abstain are against Chavez -- however, they were either encouraged not to vote becaused the system was rigged, or scared by Government, as it happened with the Maisanta list. For example, I was the only one of who voted in my whole family -- who is against Chavez, but did not think it was worth going to vote. Yesterday was the first day in a long path to restablish democracy in Venezuela. We need to be grateful to the student movements who may go down in history as the main factor in saving our democracy, however, we cannot let down our guard. As Baduel said, Chavez can push most of these reforms through the special powers he has for the next 6 months.
My comments:
I agree that the margin was larger. The CNE (Electoral Arbiter) and Chavez claimed that the results were irreversible with 88% of the vote. with a 1.4% pts. margin. If you do a quick calculation, Chavez could still win with 56%+ of the remaining vote (he won in 8 states by at least that amount). I have a hard time believing that Chavez would accept (even under pressure) unless they demonstrated to him that he could not win mathematically. The real difference is probably between 4-6%. Also, polls show that the vast majority of those who abstain are against Chavez -- however, they were either encouraged not to vote becaused the system was rigged, or scared by Government, as it happened with the Maisanta list. For example, I was the only one of who voted in my whole family -- who is against Chavez, but did not think it was worth going to vote. Yesterday was the first day in a long path to restablish democracy in Venezuela. We need to be grateful to the student movements who may go down in history as the main factor in saving our democracy, however, we cannot let down our guard. As Baduel said, Chavez can push most of these reforms through the special powers he has for the next 6 months.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Chavez y el CNE admitieron la mentira sin querer ... vean mis calculos
Chavez dice que le gustan los numeros, pero algo no me cuadraba anoche. El CNE y Chavez dijeron que con el 90% de los votos los resultados eran irreversibles. Eso no es el caso, al menos que la diferencia fuese mucho mayor del 1.4% reportado. Un calculo facil demuestra que si en el 10% restante el fuese 58% para el SI y 42% para el NO entoces el SI gana. Segun los datos publicados por el CNE en 7 estados hubo mas de 58% para el SI. Cuando un resultado es tan cerrado 1-2% se espera que los resultado lleguen al 95-98% para decir que eran irreversibles matematicamente. Uds. creen que Chavez aceptaria los resultados si puede todavia ganar con un split de 58/42 del voto restante? En mi opinion, la diferencia era por lo menos de 5% para que matematicamente fueran irreversibles.
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Chavez says that he likes numbers, but something did not match for me last night. The CNE (Election Commission) said that with 90% of the votos the results were irreversible. That's not the case, unless the difference were much more than the 1.4% reported. A quick calculation shows that with the 10% of the votes remaining, those votes for YES (ie. Chavez) needed 58% to overtake the NO. When you have results within 1-2%, usually you wait until 95-98% results come in to claim mathematically irreversible (statistically is differerent). Do you really think that Chavez would have accepted the results if he could still win with a 58% of the remaining vote? In my opinion, the difference was at least of 5% to claim mathematically irreversible.
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Chavez says that he likes numbers, but something did not match for me last night. The CNE (Election Commission) said that with 90% of the votos the results were irreversible. That's not the case, unless the difference were much more than the 1.4% reported. A quick calculation shows that with the 10% of the votes remaining, those votes for YES (ie. Chavez) needed 58% to overtake the NO. When you have results within 1-2%, usually you wait until 95-98% results come in to claim mathematically irreversible (statistically is differerent). Do you really think that Chavez would have accepted the results if he could still win with a 58% of the remaining vote? In my opinion, the difference was at least of 5% to claim mathematically irreversible.
Carta de Arno Erban a Oppenheimer y su respuesta
Arno, gracias. Estoy en el aeropuerto saliendo de viaje, pero aviseme cuando de una de sus conferencias en Miami, para poder ir.
Andres Oppenheimer
-----Original Message----- From: Arnoerban@aol.com [mailto:Arnoerban@aol.com] Sent: Thu 11/29/2007 1:45 PM To: Oppenheimer, Andres - Miami Cc: Subject: uno de sus admiradores
Estimado Andres
Soy Checo y despues de golpe comunista emigre a bella Venezuela.Ya el pais dejo de ser bello y asi vivo co mi familia en Miami. Me ocupo hablando, a los que se intereasan , de los origenes ,experiencias y cosecuencias de Holocausto. . Cuando Hitler gano democraticamente las elecciones, recuerdo,que mi padre decia.Este tonto terminara pronto, los Alemanes lo tumbaran en proximas elecciones y ademas lo que pasa en Alemania nunca puede pasar aqui. No hubo proximas elecciones. A toda mi familia asesinaron en camara de gas Yo pase anos en 5 diferentes campos de concentracion. Se, que este cuento no es nada nuevo pero hay que repetirlo de veces en cuando. Sus conferencias son muy importantes, abren ojos a mucha gente Yo trato hacer igual con mi tema. Me gustaria enormemente poder hablar con Ud. Si no, como dicen : El carino es el mismo.
Arno Erban No de Auschwitz B-13126
PS Mas informacion Elinor Brecher
Andres Oppenheimer
-----Original Message----- From: Arnoerban@aol.com [mailto:Arnoerban@aol.com] Sent: Thu 11/29/2007 1:45 PM To: Oppenheimer, Andres - Miami Cc: Subject: uno de sus admiradores
Estimado Andres
Soy Checo y despues de golpe comunista emigre a bella Venezuela.Ya el pais dejo de ser bello y asi vivo co mi familia en Miami. Me ocupo hablando, a los que se intereasan , de los origenes ,experiencias y cosecuencias de Holocausto. . Cuando Hitler gano democraticamente las elecciones, recuerdo,que mi padre decia.Este tonto terminara pronto, los Alemanes lo tumbaran en proximas elecciones y ademas lo que pasa en Alemania nunca puede pasar aqui. No hubo proximas elecciones. A toda mi familia asesinaron en camara de gas Yo pase anos en 5 diferentes campos de concentracion. Se, que este cuento no es nada nuevo pero hay que repetirlo de veces en cuando. Sus conferencias son muy importantes, abren ojos a mucha gente Yo trato hacer igual con mi tema. Me gustaria enormemente poder hablar con Ud. Si no, como dicen : El carino es el mismo.
Arno Erban No de Auschwitz B-13126
PS Mas informacion Elinor Brecher
My comments to Herald, New York Times, Washington Post
Most Venezuelans only have had a few hours of sleep, but today most Venezuelans are optimistic about our future for the first time in 8 years. We celebrate Chavez's first defeat and the beginning of restablishing democracy back in Venezuela. We could not haved done it without the efforts of the Collegue students in Venezuela. We are grateful, but please don't let down your guard. Chavez will seek revenge, but this could be the beggining of the end of his reign.
from Rayma:
Chavez: 'There is no dictatorship here' - 12/03/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
Chavez: 'There is no dictatorship here' - 12/03/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
My comments to Herald:
Most Venezuelans only have had a few hours of sleep, but today most Venezuelans are optimistic about our future for the first time in 8 years. We celebrate Chavez's first defeat and the beginning of restablishing democracy back in Venezuela. We could not haved done it without the efforts of the Collegue students in Venezuela. We are grateful, but please don't let down your guard. Chavez will seek revenge, but this could be the beggining of the end of his reign.
My comments to Herald:
Most Venezuelans only have had a few hours of sleep, but today most Venezuelans are optimistic about our future for the first time in 8 years. We celebrate Chavez's first defeat and the beginning of restablishing democracy back in Venezuela. We could not haved done it without the efforts of the Collegue students in Venezuela. We are grateful, but please don't let down your guard. Chavez will seek revenge, but this could be the beggining of the end of his reign.
Venezuelans Deny Chávez Additional Authority - washingtonpost.com
Venezuelans Deny Chávez Additional Authority - washingtonpost.com
My comments in Washington Post:
Most Venezuelans only have had a few hours of sleep, but today most Venezuelans are optimistic about our future for the first time in 8 years. We celebrate Chavez's first defeat and the beginning of restablishing democracy back in Venezuela. We could not haved done it without the efforts of the Collegue students in Venezuela. We are grateful, but please don't let down your guard. Chavez will seek revenge, but this could be the beggining of the end of his reign.
My comments in Washington Post:
Most Venezuelans only have had a few hours of sleep, but today most Venezuelans are optimistic about our future for the first time in 8 years. We celebrate Chavez's first defeat and the beginning of restablishing democracy back in Venezuela. We could not haved done it without the efforts of the Collegue students in Venezuela. We are grateful, but please don't let down your guard. Chavez will seek revenge, but this could be the beggining of the end of his reign.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Piensalo 2 Veces - si respondes No en alguna es NO/NO
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Only an insecure colossus could reject the Dream Act - 10/27/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm
Only an insecure colossus could reject the Dream Act - 10/27/2007 - MiamiHerald.com#recent_comm
My letter:
What's even more ridiculous is that many undocumented students do not even qualify for a student visa. In other words, foreigners have more rights than students in the U.S.! Many of these kids only speak English and lived in the U.S. since they were babies. One in three Americans are descendants of Ellis Island. The biggest immigration group was Italians. The only requirement was to make it to the U.S. and that they did not have contagious disease. I am not for blanket amnesty, but why can productive immigrants with no criminal record be given the opportunity to get some legal status? I arrived to this country when I was 12 years old, learned English in 3 months, graduated High School Salutatorian, and went to Harvard. The only difference between those kids and me is that my father had money to get a work visa. Unfortunately, undocumented immigrants cannot even qualify for a work visa. For Republicans, it is better to have 12 million illegals than identify, qualify, and give some legal status to those productive to society. I hate to say it but it is a new and accepted form of Appartheid. It is better to maintain 12 million people as sub-humans than give them any rights.
My letter:
What's even more ridiculous is that many undocumented students do not even qualify for a student visa. In other words, foreigners have more rights than students in the U.S.! Many of these kids only speak English and lived in the U.S. since they were babies. One in three Americans are descendants of Ellis Island. The biggest immigration group was Italians. The only requirement was to make it to the U.S. and that they did not have contagious disease. I am not for blanket amnesty, but why can productive immigrants with no criminal record be given the opportunity to get some legal status? I arrived to this country when I was 12 years old, learned English in 3 months, graduated High School Salutatorian, and went to Harvard. The only difference between those kids and me is that my father had money to get a work visa. Unfortunately, undocumented immigrants cannot even qualify for a work visa. For Republicans, it is better to have 12 million illegals than identify, qualify, and give some legal status to those productive to society. I hate to say it but it is a new and accepted form of Appartheid. It is better to maintain 12 million people as sub-humans than give them any rights.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Como llegamos a Bs. 6000 por $ - VenEconomia y mi Opinion
¿Negocio para quién?
El jueves 20 de septiembre, el Banco Central de Venezuela y el Ministerio de Finanzas abrieron por segunda vez la oferta de Bono del Sur III. Este bono será pagadero en bolívares y comprenderá la venta conjunta a un precio único (108%) de unidades compuestas por 50% en bonos venezolanos TICC15, y 50% en bonos argentinos Boden 15.A pesar de que para el momento de redactar esta nota no se conocía cuál sería la distribución final de las adjudicaciones de este bono, sí se tenían sobre seguro varios aspectos.Primero, que la emisión está sobre suscrita por un amplio margen.Segundo, que las asignaciones se harán entre unos 200.000 a 300.000 inversionistas individuales, a quienes les corresponderían cupos de $4.000 a $6.000 cada uno, según estimaciones del bbo Servicios Financieros.Se estima que los TICC15 se podrían vender a la banca local aproximadamente a 82% de su valor nominal, y los Boden 15 se venderían en el mercado internacional a 80% de su valor nominal. De ser así, por cada unidad de $3.000, el comprador recibiría unos $1.200 a un precio promedio de Bs.3.800:$.Es decir, éste sería el "negoción del año", aunque a muy pequeña escala.Sobre esta emisión del Bono del Sur III hay además algunos aspectos que criticar, entre ellos:1) La poca cuantía de la adjudicación, que hace que el impacto para restringir la liquidez sea casi nulo.2) La orientación del Bono hacia pequeños inversionistas deja fuera de juego a los compradores corporativos, lo que hace que quede insatisfecha la demanda de las empresas para importaciones, servicios y otras necesidades. Lo peor es que esto sucede en momentos álgidos: Cadivi está restringiendo las asignaciones de divisas oficiales, y en el cuarto trimestre del año, tradicionalmente la demanda de divisas para pagar obligaciones contraídas por insumos y servicios aumenta.En resumen, lo que se visualiza es: Que esa demanda de divisas será satisfecha a través del mercado permuta; que la tasa permuta se disparará inexorablemente hacia los Bs.6.000:$ y que la inflación que afectará a los venezolanos crecerá. Mientras tanto, unos 200.000 a 300.000 afortunados estarán celebrando su año nuevo con una ganancia de unos Bs.2.000.000 a Bs.3.000.000 cada uno.Visto de esta manera, la emisión del Bono Sur III en vez de fortalecer al bolívar lo estaría debilitando, pues una emisión valorada en dólares y pagadera en bolívares sólo consigue distraer la atención de los problemas de fondo: 1) Un bolívar oficial grotescamente sobrevaluado y 2) una política económica cosmética que no corrige las desviaciones estructurales.Disponible en inglés en: www.veneconomy.com a partir de las 4:00 p.m.
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En mi opinion, el Bolivar fuerte tiene que ser devaluado por lo menos a Bs. 4000 por $ (algunos pronostican 6000 Bs). Los bono emitidos por el Gobierno ya reflejan esta valor o mayor. Ademas desde que se anuncion la reforma constitucional el flujo de divisas van en cascada. A esto se le suma la presion inflacionara generada por la misma reforma, alto volumen de dinero en la calle y las utilidades/navidades. Lo mas interesante es que el Gobierno le conviene devaluar para subir sueldos en Bs. de 20-30% mientras subsidiada por una devaluacion inecesaria, en mi opinion. Con un ingreso petrolero en $$ que se acerca a $100 el barril es injustificado una devaluacion, ya el Bs. persiste del "Dutch disease" El problema es que existe un completo caos en materia de politica fiscal y ahora va ser peor en politica monetaria ya que el BCV pierde toda independencia. Chavez utilizara el BCV como su chequera personal!
El jueves 20 de septiembre, el Banco Central de Venezuela y el Ministerio de Finanzas abrieron por segunda vez la oferta de Bono del Sur III. Este bono será pagadero en bolívares y comprenderá la venta conjunta a un precio único (108%) de unidades compuestas por 50% en bonos venezolanos TICC15, y 50% en bonos argentinos Boden 15.A pesar de que para el momento de redactar esta nota no se conocía cuál sería la distribución final de las adjudicaciones de este bono, sí se tenían sobre seguro varios aspectos.Primero, que la emisión está sobre suscrita por un amplio margen.Segundo, que las asignaciones se harán entre unos 200.000 a 300.000 inversionistas individuales, a quienes les corresponderían cupos de $4.000 a $6.000 cada uno, según estimaciones del bbo Servicios Financieros.Se estima que los TICC15 se podrían vender a la banca local aproximadamente a 82% de su valor nominal, y los Boden 15 se venderían en el mercado internacional a 80% de su valor nominal. De ser así, por cada unidad de $3.000, el comprador recibiría unos $1.200 a un precio promedio de Bs.3.800:$.Es decir, éste sería el "negoción del año", aunque a muy pequeña escala.Sobre esta emisión del Bono del Sur III hay además algunos aspectos que criticar, entre ellos:1) La poca cuantía de la adjudicación, que hace que el impacto para restringir la liquidez sea casi nulo.2) La orientación del Bono hacia pequeños inversionistas deja fuera de juego a los compradores corporativos, lo que hace que quede insatisfecha la demanda de las empresas para importaciones, servicios y otras necesidades. Lo peor es que esto sucede en momentos álgidos: Cadivi está restringiendo las asignaciones de divisas oficiales, y en el cuarto trimestre del año, tradicionalmente la demanda de divisas para pagar obligaciones contraídas por insumos y servicios aumenta.En resumen, lo que se visualiza es: Que esa demanda de divisas será satisfecha a través del mercado permuta; que la tasa permuta se disparará inexorablemente hacia los Bs.6.000:$ y que la inflación que afectará a los venezolanos crecerá. Mientras tanto, unos 200.000 a 300.000 afortunados estarán celebrando su año nuevo con una ganancia de unos Bs.2.000.000 a Bs.3.000.000 cada uno.Visto de esta manera, la emisión del Bono Sur III en vez de fortalecer al bolívar lo estaría debilitando, pues una emisión valorada en dólares y pagadera en bolívares sólo consigue distraer la atención de los problemas de fondo: 1) Un bolívar oficial grotescamente sobrevaluado y 2) una política económica cosmética que no corrige las desviaciones estructurales.Disponible en inglés en: www.veneconomy.com a partir de las 4:00 p.m.
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En mi opinion, el Bolivar fuerte tiene que ser devaluado por lo menos a Bs. 4000 por $ (algunos pronostican 6000 Bs). Los bono emitidos por el Gobierno ya reflejan esta valor o mayor. Ademas desde que se anuncion la reforma constitucional el flujo de divisas van en cascada. A esto se le suma la presion inflacionara generada por la misma reforma, alto volumen de dinero en la calle y las utilidades/navidades. Lo mas interesante es que el Gobierno le conviene devaluar para subir sueldos en Bs. de 20-30% mientras subsidiada por una devaluacion inecesaria, en mi opinion. Con un ingreso petrolero en $$ que se acerca a $100 el barril es injustificado una devaluacion, ya el Bs. persiste del "Dutch disease" El problema es que existe un completo caos en materia de politica fiscal y ahora va ser peor en politica monetaria ya que el BCV pierde toda independencia. Chavez utilizara el BCV como su chequera personal!
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Guitar Hero - The Medium - Magazine - New York Times Blog#comment-67498#comment-67498
Guitar Hero - The Medium - Magazine - New York Times Blog#comment-67498#comment-67498
My comments:
I enjoyed your article. Since I saw the Funtwo guitar video in youtube.com, I have become almost addicted to it. I have probably seen it 20 times. I would love to see him play some rock classics. Clearly, he has his own personality. So, he will do what he feels like. For those who doubt his talent, look at all the other Funtwo videos, particularly his live performance in DC. I agree that JerryC deserves as much credit.
My comments:
I enjoyed your article. Since I saw the Funtwo guitar video in youtube.com, I have become almost addicted to it. I have probably seen it 20 times. I would love to see him play some rock classics. Clearly, he has his own personality. So, he will do what he feels like. For those who doubt his talent, look at all the other Funtwo videos, particularly his live performance in DC. I agree that JerryC deserves as much credit.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Latin American schools don't measure up - 10/21/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Latin American schools don't measure up - 10/21/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Carlos Erban said...
I am shocked by the constant barrage of racist comments against Hispanics. I am for freedom of speech, but some of these comments should be removed.
For people that are serious about this issue, I think that these macro-figures are a 50,000 feet view, are based on mean values, and miss on some realities about the education level in Latin America.
I arrived to the U.S. when I was 13 years old and all the students like me from Latin America were automatically placed 2 or 3 years ahead in science and math. We caught in English within 3 months. If you review the list of High School Valedictorians and Salutatorians in S. Florida, you will notice most are Hispanics. I was one of them. I went to Harvard and had the same experience. Most students from Latin America stood-out. The same happens at MIT. As a matter of fact, if you look at the numbers of Professors at MIT and Harvard for Math and Sciences, it is disproportionaley high for foreigners. If you visit MIT's campus, you feel that you are in Asia or Latin America!
Carlos Erban said...
I am shocked by the constant barrage of racist comments against Hispanics. I am for freedom of speech, but some of these comments should be removed.
For people that are serious about this issue, I think that these macro-figures are a 50,000 feet view, are based on mean values, and miss on some realities about the education level in Latin America.
I arrived to the U.S. when I was 13 years old and all the students like me from Latin America were automatically placed 2 or 3 years ahead in science and math. We caught in English within 3 months. If you review the list of High School Valedictorians and Salutatorians in S. Florida, you will notice most are Hispanics. I was one of them. I went to Harvard and had the same experience. Most students from Latin America stood-out. The same happens at MIT. As a matter of fact, if you look at the numbers of Professors at MIT and Harvard for Math and Sciences, it is disproportionaley high for foreigners. If you visit MIT's campus, you feel that you are in Asia or Latin America!
Friday, October 19, 2007
Chávez destabilizes, and U.S. pays bill - 10/18/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Chávez destabilizes, and U.S. pays bill - 10/18/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Carlos Erban said...
Unfortunately, Oil producing countries in the Middle East and Russia are not a better option for the U.S. The Cuban embargo might have had an effect because tourism is their main industry and the U.S was only a few miles away. Oil is a commodity. I don't foresee an embargo because it would be horrible for both countries. However, Chavez is paranoid, and Venezuela is getting ready for a possible embargo in the future. As a matter of fact, it may come from Venezuela to the U.S. Chavez was able to withstand a 6 month stoppage with little international reserves, which are now near $40 billion -- more than enough to keep Venezuela afloat for at least year. Our best solution is to start seriously implementing fuel alternatives so that we don't have to depend on the Middle East, Russia or Venezuela to keep driving our SUVs with cheap fuel
Carlos Erban said...
Unfortunately, Oil producing countries in the Middle East and Russia are not a better option for the U.S. The Cuban embargo might have had an effect because tourism is their main industry and the U.S was only a few miles away. Oil is a commodity. I don't foresee an embargo because it would be horrible for both countries. However, Chavez is paranoid, and Venezuela is getting ready for a possible embargo in the future. As a matter of fact, it may come from Venezuela to the U.S. Chavez was able to withstand a 6 month stoppage with little international reserves, which are now near $40 billion -- more than enough to keep Venezuela afloat for at least year. Our best solution is to start seriously implementing fuel alternatives so that we don't have to depend on the Middle East, Russia or Venezuela to keep driving our SUVs with cheap fuel
Monday, October 15, 2007
Ganabamos 2-3 veces mas con CAP I y LHC que con Chavez!
El Sueldo Mínimo y Promedio con Chávez
Hoy 15 de Octubre hay un articulo en el Universal titulado
"A pesar del boom petrolero desciende el salario promedio"
http://economia.eluniversal.com/2007/10/15/eco_art_a-pesar-del-boom-pet_528127.shtml
El aticulos se basa en gran parte a una entrevista sobre un estudio realizado por el Prof. Miguel Angel Santos del IESA. En este se argumenta que aunque el ingreso petrolero se ha multiplicado el sueldo promedio (normalizado al 2006) ha disminuido y el minimo aumento pero poco. Tambien se discute la disminución del desempleo y el aumento de los empleados púbicos. Sin embargo, a mi lo que mas me llamo la atención es la caída del sueldo promedio y minimo en comparación con los últimos booms petroleros de los 70s y principio de los 80s. El sueldo promedio en 1977 era de $1700 mensuales y el minimo era de $771 en 1980. Hoy en dia el sueldo promedio es $494 (-71%) – o 30% de lo era y el minimo es de $460 (-40%) o 60% -- o sea casi la mitad de antes. Que hemos logrado con el actual boom petrolero? Que la los pobres y la clase media ganen casi lo mismo – que no fuera tan malo si todos hubiéramos aumentado – pero el problema es que los pobres ganan casi la mitad que hace 30 anos y la clase media gana 70% menos. Quizas CAP I y LHC administraron mejor el boom petrolero que Chavez? No se, pero algo que esta claro es que ganábamos por el 2-3 veces mas a finales de los 70s y a principio de los 80s!! Los números de abajo hablan por si solo.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Chávez stands to gain by trying to free hostages - 09/18/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Chávez stands to gain by trying to free hostages - 09/18/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
My comments:
He is already winning by being praised by Sarkozy and Brownfield. He may even win the Nobel Peace Prize if he is able to free a significant number of prisioners. Chavez is seizing on his best opportunity for foreign leaders in the EU and the U.S. to have no choice but to praise him despite dismantling Venezuela's democratic system and destroying private enterprise.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
9/18/2007 11:12 AM
9081.5 Report as Violation
My comments:
He is already winning by being praised by Sarkozy and Brownfield. He may even win the Nobel Peace Prize if he is able to free a significant number of prisioners. Chavez is seizing on his best opportunity for foreign leaders in the EU and the U.S. to have no choice but to praise him despite dismantling Venezuela's democratic system and destroying private enterprise.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
9/18/2007 11:12 AM
9081.5 Report as Violation
Monday, September 17, 2007
#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
#recent_comm#recent_comm#recent_comm
My comments:
Comments
These figures are a little misleading. L.America is having the highest GDP growth decade, probably ever, although mainly due to high commodity prices. Just like Asia is taking market share from Latin America in exports to the U.S. China and India are taking consumption share from the U.S. and driving to a large extend high commodity prices (eg. Oil, etc.) thus growth for L. America. I think you should show the balance of trade of all these countries. However, we can all agree that L.America is declining in exports for finished products, which really drives long-term prosperity.
Posted by: Carlos
9/17/2007 9:30 AM
My comments:
Comments
These figures are a little misleading. L.America is having the highest GDP growth decade, probably ever, although mainly due to high commodity prices. Just like Asia is taking market share from Latin America in exports to the U.S. China and India are taking consumption share from the U.S. and driving to a large extend high commodity prices (eg. Oil, etc.) thus growth for L. America. I think you should show the balance of trade of all these countries. However, we can all agree that L.America is declining in exports for finished products, which really drives long-term prosperity.
Posted by: Carlos
9/17/2007 9:30 AM
Monday, September 10, 2007
Blogger: The Oppenheimer Report on Latin America - Post a Comment
Blogger: The Oppenheimer Report on Latin America - Post a Comment
My comments:
1 Comment - Show Original Post
Carlos Erban said...
I think that the main goal of the debate was achieved: to galvanize overwhelming Hispanic support behind the Democrats. I found it ironic that it was held in Miami, where most Hispanics are Cubans and vote mostly Republican. I agree with you that the translations were horrible. I thought Obama's translation was especially bad. I kept trying to hear in between the lines Obama's response. He is a great speaker, but it was all lost in the translation. I think it would have been better to let each candidate respond in English and then translate the answer to Spanish (as they do in the Miss Universe), or add subtitles with the Spanish translation. It would have taken probably 30 minutes more but improved the quality. This would also allow all the English speaking only viewers to understand the debate. I am all for inclusiveness. I was disappointed how Univision immediately jumped to a soap opera of sorts right after the debate without any analysis or dibriefing. I found it very interesting how the debates were reported in major newspapers -- for the most part as a plus for Democrats and a minus for Republicans.
6:35 PM
My comments:
1 Comment - Show Original Post
Carlos Erban said...
I think that the main goal of the debate was achieved: to galvanize overwhelming Hispanic support behind the Democrats. I found it ironic that it was held in Miami, where most Hispanics are Cubans and vote mostly Republican. I agree with you that the translations were horrible. I thought Obama's translation was especially bad. I kept trying to hear in between the lines Obama's response. He is a great speaker, but it was all lost in the translation. I think it would have been better to let each candidate respond in English and then translate the answer to Spanish (as they do in the Miss Universe), or add subtitles with the Spanish translation. It would have taken probably 30 minutes more but improved the quality. This would also allow all the English speaking only viewers to understand the debate. I am all for inclusiveness. I was disappointed how Univision immediately jumped to a soap opera of sorts right after the debate without any analysis or dibriefing. I found it very interesting how the debates were reported in major newspapers -- for the most part as a plus for Democrats and a minus for Republicans.
6:35 PM
Friday, September 7, 2007
WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How serious is Apple's iPhone pricing misstep?
WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How serious is Apple's iPhone pricing misstep?
-------------------------
Dear Mr. Jobs,
I have 3 ipods (every generation), 1 ishuffle, and bought an iphone the first week it came out. I have also bought about 6 more ipods for gifts to my family. I have also had 2 Macs. Apple made their most loyal users like me very angry. The $100 store credit is just a gimmick. Give us our $200 back to make it right!! You are supposed to reward not punish your most loyal customers, until you do, I am not buying any more Apple products.
Carlos Erban
-------------------------
Dear Mr. Jobs,
I have 3 ipods (every generation), 1 ishuffle, and bought an iphone the first week it came out. I have also bought about 6 more ipods for gifts to my family. I have also had 2 Macs. Apple made their most loyal users like me very angry. The $100 store credit is just a gimmick. Give us our $200 back to make it right!! You are supposed to reward not punish your most loyal customers, until you do, I am not buying any more Apple products.
Carlos Erban
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Friday, August 31, 2007
How a Sleepy Oil Giant Became a World Player - WSJ.com
How a Sleepy Oil Giant Became a World Player - WSJ.com
My Comments:
As this article points out, Petrobras is a success story, benefiting in part, from Chavez intervention of PDVSA. However, you could have read the same success story about PDVSA 10 years ago (prior to Chavez). The point is that all it takes is populist - left wing President to destroy this success story. It is not far-fetched to imagine a "Chavez style" government in Brazil. Look at Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba, and to a lesser extent Argentina and almost Mexico (if Lopez-Obrador would have won)
My Comments:
As this article points out, Petrobras is a success story, benefiting in part, from Chavez intervention of PDVSA. However, you could have read the same success story about PDVSA 10 years ago (prior to Chavez). The point is that all it takes is populist - left wing President to destroy this success story. It is not far-fetched to imagine a "Chavez style" government in Brazil. Look at Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba, and to a lesser extent Argentina and almost Mexico (if Lopez-Obrador would have won)
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Gauging the Impact of Immigration
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Gauging the Impact of Immigration
This is completely incosistent with all studies on the economic impact.
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) prior to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel — when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami’s economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy’s needs.
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 30, 2007 at 3:12 pm
This is completely incosistent with all studies on the economic impact.
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) prior to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel — when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami’s economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy’s needs.
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 30, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Poverty in U.S. might get worse - 08/30/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Poverty in U.S. might get worse - 08/30/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
My comments:
Unfortunately, so many comments are racists against us, Hispanics, wether we are legal or not, but even if you hate Hispanics, we can save Social Security. Also, we are almost Italians (ie. Latins) ? the largest group that came through Ellis Island.
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) priort to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel -- when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami's economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy's needs.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
My comments:
Unfortunately, so many comments are racists against us, Hispanics, wether we are legal or not, but even if you hate Hispanics, we can save Social Security. Also, we are almost Italians (ie. Latins) ? the largest group that came through Ellis Island.
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowest unemployment levels ever below 5% (S. Florida is 3.6%). Further, a Pew Study shows that 85% of the 12 million undocumented workers are 18-44 years old. Social Security Actuaries calculated that in the next 75 years immigrants will pay $5 trillion in payroll taxes than they will receive in Social Security benefits. As a matter of fact, the Z-visa proposed in Immigration reform is a registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) priort to qualifying for a Green Card. In other words, it does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card). The best experiment was Mariel -- when several hundred thousands Cubans arrived. Miami's economy suffered the first year and then outpaced the national economy the following year. Finally, Immigration laws have changed at least 20 times in the past 100 years to adapt to the economy's needs.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : FAQs on Immigration Enforcement
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : FAQs on Immigration Enforcement
My Comments:
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowes unemployment levels ever below 5%. Further, these 12 million undocumented workers — mostly between 20-40 years old — can save Social Security. Since z-visa registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card), the net effect can be billions of dollars. Even if you hate us Hispanics, you can take economic advantage from this reform. We are almost Italians (ie. Latins) — the largest group that came through Ellis Island. Win-Win-Win!
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 29, 2007 at 2:23 pm
My Comments:
Taking out the emotional side of the issue and just looking at the economics, it is clear that even with 12 million undocumented workers, we are still at one of the lowes unemployment levels ever below 5%. Further, these 12 million undocumented workers — mostly between 20-40 years old — can save Social Security. Since z-visa registration (a la Ellis Island but with strict background and language requirements) does not allow them to claim social security for at least 10 years (until they can claim a Green Card), the net effect can be billions of dollars. Even if you hate us Hispanics, you can take economic advantage from this reform. We are almost Italians (ie. Latins) — the largest group that came through Ellis Island. Win-Win-Win!
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 29, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Monday, August 27, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Herald: Tales of Survival, Jan. 27, 2005
Posted on Thu, Jan. 27, 2005
TALES OF SURVIVAL
60 years after Auschwitz
BY SARA OLKON
solkon@herald.com
When the Red Army arrived to free prisoners at the Nazis' Auschwitz concentration camp in Poland 60 years ago today, the liberation held little meaning, at first, to those who had somehow survived.
Jan. 27, 1945, was simply another day in hell for people who had been isolated, forced on death marches or enslaved at munitions plants.
Liberation gave way to a new set of horrors: survivor's guilt. The knowledge that loved ones were dead or the uncertainty of not knowing. There was crippling illness. Often, they found, strangers had stolen their homes.
The Herald talked to some South Floridians who were prisoners at one time in Auschwitz, as well as a soldier who helped liberate a Nazi work camp, about the anniversary.
• Arno Erban
• Morris Rosenblat
• Kathy Berger
• Halina Laster
• Warren Melgaard and Leo Rosner
South Florida Commemorations
The Simon Wiesenthal Center will hold two candle-lighting programs. The commemorations are free, but reservations are suggested. Each program will be followed by a screening of the film Unlikely Heroes, which documents lesser-known stories of men and women who resisted the Nazis during World War II.
• Today: 7:15 p.m., Temple Beth Sholom, 4144 Chase Ave., Miami Beach. Call 305-538-7231.
• Feb. 2: 7:15 p.m., Temple Beth El, 333 SW Fourth Ave., Boca Raton. Call 561-391-8900.
Posted on Thu, Jan. 27, 2005
ARNO ERBAN
Arno Erban remembers concrete rows and the clunk of heavy boots at Auschwitz.
He remembers 3 a.m. head counts and rubber clubs, icy barracks where he slept across other angry bodies, as feet kicked at his shrunken face and torso. He remembers the smell of burning flesh and hair.
Erban was sent from Auschwitz to Jaworzno to Terezin. His liberation, falling about the same time Auschwitz was freed, is a jumbled blur. There had been gunfire outside for three days and two nights.
It was sunrise when Erban and some 30 other prisoners saw tanks coming in over the horizon. They sat together in their filthy and frailed prison garb and waited. At the time, the six-foot-tall Czech-native weighed 75 pounds.
''We didn't know who it was,'' said Erban, now 82. ``Then we heard some noise, words. We knew it wasn't in German.''
Russian soldiers handed out small bags of sugar and tins of lard and brought the prisoners to a nearby hospital. The first question at the door: Are you Jewish?
Hospital staff wanted to keep the Jews and non-Jews separate, Erban said from his home in Miami Beach.
Gun battles broke out again outside the rural hospital. Doctors, nurses and most of the Poles fled. Erban and the others went to nearby farms and begged for food.
``I was liberated several times. I died several times.''
Herald: Portrait of Terezin survivors, Nov. 14, 2004
Posted on Sun, Nov. 14, 2004 | ||
Portraits of Terezin survivors
BY ELINOR J. BRECHER
ebrecher@herald.com
Arno Erban holds a slim volume with a decaying spine, its pink pages graced with handwritten script so elegant and disciplined that it appears computer-generated.
Baudelaire. Kipling. The Czech lyric poet Josef Hora.
Erban doesn't remember which of the boys he cared for at Terezin Home No. 9 transcribed the poems -- there were hundreds -- but he points to the place where Hora's Thanks to the Fire ends in the middle of a line. Right there, says Erban, ``they took the boy to transport.''
To Auschwitz, the death camp, where millions perished in the gas chambers, their remains blasted skyward as fetid smoke through the crematoria chimneys.
Erban was little more than a boy himself when he entered the surreal world of Terezin in January 1942 at 19. Perhaps because he'd been active in the Boy Scouts and YMCA in Prague, he became house master of Home No. 9, a barrack with triple-deck wooden bunks, a table, and a handful of chairs.
For the two years until he was deported to the Auschwitz-Birkenau death complex in Poland, he was a teacher and father figure to boys ages 13-15.
They studied literature and math, played soccer and chess, wrote poems and painted pictures. Erban established a structure based on scouting, with points for good performance in everything from bed making to choir.
He insisted on respect for self and others, and daily good deeds. So when he saw two of his boys carrying a dead body on a stretcher to help out two old men, they got good-deed points for the day.
Home No. 9 didn't house the same 40 boys from beginning to end. Erban, now 82, never knew when the day started if any of his boys would succumb to a ''selection'' -- a euphemism for the death sentence of a transport to ``the east.''
Those selected went to the left; the others to the right.
''We don't know who was luckier,'' he says.
For his birthday in 1943, the boys gave him the book of poems, on paper stolen from the Nazis. They drew the beaver symbol of their scouting ''troop,'' and a dozen or so signed autographed the pages.
A few survived.
After Auschwitz, Erban survived the Geliweicz and Jaworzno camps, death marches, starvation and disease. He stood six feet tall and weighed 75 pounds when he was liberated by the Russian army in January 1945, and couldn't walk for three months.
For his role in the Terezin underground -- making contact with Czech resistance fighters outside the camp -- he became one of 18 civilians awarded the Czech Iron Cross after World War II.
He has three living children and one grandchild. He and his wife, Yolanda, have a bayfront flat in Miami Beach and a home in Caracas, where Erban settled after the war.
A retired accountant and secular Jew, he frequently speaks to Miami-Dade County students on the Holocaust. Given the popularity of body art these days, he chuckles that some kids think the B13126 tattoo on his left arm is ``cool.''
As he watches the Terezin documentary, he smiles at familiar scenes and faces, yet wonders if anyone who wasn't there can understand Hitler's insidious fiction.
* * *
The following are excerpts from a speech Erban gave at a reunion with some of his surviving ''boys'' on June 26, 1994, in Prague:
The boys were all different on arrival and looking so much alike very soon after. Some came from big cities, children of wealthy families; some came from a small village. Some came from a religious family. Some of them didn't know they were Jews.
This place became their home. They learned to love each other because that was their new family . . .
The part of my life as a leader of so-called 'home for children in captivity' now appears as a dream, distant and unrealistic.
I am certain that this was the most important phase of my life, both hard and most constructive. For more than two years, my only thoughts were the boys who were in my care. I tried to give them reason to live in spite of the jail environment. If it were not so sad and hopeless, certainly it would have give me much great personal satisfaction. Unfortunately, the final result of all these efforts ended so tragically. . .
We tried to create something noble and sincere in that tragic environment full of lies and danger, something that despite all the German efforts to make slaves of us, allow us to remain human with clear moral ideals and a firm basis to start normal lives, interrupted by so many years.''
Friday, August 24, 2007
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Democrats Set to Impose Penalties Against Florida for Primary
Washington Wire - WSJ.com : Democrats Set to Impose Penalties Against Florida for Primary
My comments:
I think the DNC should tread very carefully how they treat Florida Democrats — a fast growing minority. This may be (as it was during Bush-Gore) the deciding state to win the Presidential election. Many Democrats in Florida are energized with the Iraq, Health Care, and Immigration issues. As a results, many Independents and young Cuban-Americans are considering voting for the first time for a Democrat.
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 24, 2007 at 12:58 pm
My comments:
I think the DNC should tread very carefully how they treat Florida Democrats — a fast growing minority. This may be (as it was during Bush-Gore) the deciding state to win the Presidential election. Many Democrats in Florida are energized with the Iraq, Health Care, and Immigration issues. As a results, many Independents and young Cuban-Americans are considering voting for the first time for a Democrat.
Comment by Carlos Erban - August 24, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Monday, August 20, 2007
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Oppenheimer "HOW TO DERAIL CHAVEZ'S POWER GRAB"
Blogger: The Oppenheimer Report on Latin America - Post a Comment
My Comments:
I have voted in every election process, signed and re-signed the petition for referendum, every single time against Chavez. Although I made line for 10 hours for the referendum and 6 hours for the last elections at the Venezuelan Consulate in Miami, it easy for me to do so because I live in the U.S. and do not work directly or indirectly for the Venezuelan Government. However, many millions of people who would vote against Chavez are afraid to do so.
First, there is the “cheat” factor. As demonstrated by Professors Housemann from Harvard and Rigobon from MIT in their “ Cisne Negro” study, the referendum results were manipulated at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=
Second, there is the “scare” factor. In my view, this factor could have turned the elections to Rosales if everyone would have voted without being scared for retribution. I am sure you are familiar with the “capta huellas” (digital finger print) used to link the who voted for whom at the polls. You also can find the MaiSanta-Tascon list of all the people who signed the referendum. They cannot work for any Government institution or worse yet cannot even get the necessary permits to operate a private enterprise. You can find the list and the video where Chavez threatens anyone “signing” at http://www.megaresistencia.com/. You can also find in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=the video filmed at PDVSA where employees where threaten to be fired by the President Ramirez if they did not vote for Chavez.
I wish you would mention these factors in your article so that your readers know what we are up against.
My Comments:
I have voted in every election process, signed and re-signed the petition for referendum, every single time against Chavez. Although I made line for 10 hours for the referendum and 6 hours for the last elections at the Venezuelan Consulate in Miami, it easy for me to do so because I live in the U.S. and do not work directly or indirectly for the Venezuelan Government. However, many millions of people who would vote against Chavez are afraid to do so.
First, there is the “cheat” factor. As demonstrated by Professors Housemann from Harvard and Rigobon from MIT in their “ Cisne Negro” study, the referendum results were manipulated at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=
Second, there is the “scare” factor. In my view, this factor could have turned the elections to Rosales if everyone would have voted without being scared for retribution. I am sure you are familiar with the “capta huellas” (digital finger print) used to link the who voted for whom at the polls. You also can find the MaiSanta-Tascon list of all the people who signed the referendum. They cannot work for any Government institution or worse yet cannot even get the necessary permits to operate a private enterprise. You can find the list and the video where Chavez threatens anyone “signing” at http://www.megaresistencia.com/. You can also find in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I925uJ9U48&mode=related&search=the video filmed at PDVSA where employees where threaten to be fired by the President Ramirez if they did not vote for Chavez.
I wish you would mention these factors in your article so that your readers know what we are up against.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Friday, August 10, 2007
Kirchner: "Por primera vez se combate en serio la corrupción"
Kirchner: "Por primera vez se combate en serio la corrupción"
Mi comentario:
Es interesante contrastar la reaccion de Kirchner con la de Chavez en cuanto la maleta con los $800,000. Lo mas comico fue eschuchar de los Chavistas que Antonini Wilson era de la Oposicion. Desde cuando viajan empresarios de la Oposicion con altos funcionarios del Gobierno Venezolano en un avion privado? Ya salio en el Herald que "Su socio en esta firma es Abad Wladimir, cuyo nombre coincide con el del secretario de American Food Grain, una filial de una importante holding privada de Venezuela (Proarepa) que ha sido favorecida por el gobierno venezolano con millonarios contratos para programas de distribución de alimentos subsidiados."
Mi comentario:
Es interesante contrastar la reaccion de Kirchner con la de Chavez en cuanto la maleta con los $800,000. Lo mas comico fue eschuchar de los Chavistas que Antonini Wilson era de la Oposicion. Desde cuando viajan empresarios de la Oposicion con altos funcionarios del Gobierno Venezolano en un avion privado? Ya salio en el Herald que "Su socio en esta firma es Abad Wladimir, cuyo nombre coincide con el del secretario de American Food Grain, una filial de una importante holding privada de Venezuela (Proarepa) que ha sido favorecida por el gobierno venezolano con millonarios contratos para programas de distribución de alimentos subsidiados."
Veneconomia: "Por culpa de tantos "millarditos" (el BCV esta casi en la quiebra)
Ha pasado mucha agua bajo el puente desde aquél domingo 9 de noviembre de 2003, cuando Hugo Chávez pidió al Banco Central desde su Aló Presidente el primer "millardito" de las reservas, para financiar un inestructurado plan de reactivación del aparato agrícola.
Desde entonces, el Banco Central de Venezuela ha traspasado $17,05 millardos al Fondo de Desarrollo Nacional (Fonden). Esta sangría de las reservas del país está llevando a la quiebra técnica al Banco Central de Venezuela.
El primer traspaso de $6,0 millardos que realizó en 2005 el BCV al Fonden fue contabilizado como un "activo diverso en moneda nacional". Con el paso del tiempo, esa cuenta fue rebautizada como "Fondo transferido al Fonden de Disposición 10° Ley del Banco Central de Venezuela". Lo cierto es que llámenla como la llamen esa cuenta no tenía (ni tiene) respaldo alguno, porque los dólares los tiene Fonden.
El segundo traspaso de $4,0 millardos en 2006 fue correctamente contabilizado como cargo directo al "Patrimonio del Banco".
Este año, el BCV realizó un tercer traspaso por $6,77 millardos, el cual fue contabilizado como una "operación en suspenso", con autorización de la Superintendencia de Bancos (Sudeban) del 18 de julio, fecha posterior al cierre del período (30 de junio).
El punto es que si se dan por incobrables estos $6,77 millardos, y se le suman los $6,0 millardos que registra el Balance del BCV al 30 de junio de la cuenta "fondo transferido al Fonden", el banco quedaría con un patrimonio negativo de Bs.18,4 billones (= $8,5 millardos). Es decir, el BCV estaría técnicamente quebrado.
Según la Ley, cualquier déficit patrimonial del Banco Central debe ser cubierto con los ingresos ordinarios del Gobierno Central. No obstante, esto sería muy difícil de cumplir (por decirlo suavemente) ya que el monto que se adeuda representa el 16% del Presupuesto del Gobierno Central de este año.
Ante esta dramática realidad, se deben buscar otras opciones para solventar la situación del BCV.
Una sería que el Fonden devolviera los dólares recibidos hasta ahora. Esto obviamente es imposible de concretar pues ese dinero está más que comprometido.
Otra sería hacer lo que sugiere el ex director del BCV, Domingo Maza Zavala, o sea, emitir bonos para compensar el déficit. El problema con esto es que el monto involucrado significaría un incremento de la deuda pública en 20%, lo que sería ilegal por cuanto el BCV terminaría financiando el déficit del Fisco, algo que prohíbe tajantemente la Constitución de 1999.
Maza Zavala también mencionó la posibilidad de amortizar la pérdida con las utilidades cambiarias futuras. Aunque suene terrible, esta opción pareciera ser la más viable: VenEconomía piensa que Venezuela está a las puertas de una devaluación de hasta Bs.3.000:$, lo que representaría una ganancia cambiaria de Bs.21 billones, monto más que suficiente para que se salden las cuentas.
Desde entonces, el Banco Central de Venezuela ha traspasado $17,05 millardos al Fondo de Desarrollo Nacional (Fonden). Esta sangría de las reservas del país está llevando a la quiebra técnica al Banco Central de Venezuela.
El primer traspaso de $6,0 millardos que realizó en 2005 el BCV al Fonden fue contabilizado como un "activo diverso en moneda nacional". Con el paso del tiempo, esa cuenta fue rebautizada como "Fondo transferido al Fonden de Disposición 10° Ley del Banco Central de Venezuela". Lo cierto es que llámenla como la llamen esa cuenta no tenía (ni tiene) respaldo alguno, porque los dólares los tiene Fonden.
El segundo traspaso de $4,0 millardos en 2006 fue correctamente contabilizado como cargo directo al "Patrimonio del Banco".
Este año, el BCV realizó un tercer traspaso por $6,77 millardos, el cual fue contabilizado como una "operación en suspenso", con autorización de la Superintendencia de Bancos (Sudeban) del 18 de julio, fecha posterior al cierre del período (30 de junio).
El punto es que si se dan por incobrables estos $6,77 millardos, y se le suman los $6,0 millardos que registra el Balance del BCV al 30 de junio de la cuenta "fondo transferido al Fonden", el banco quedaría con un patrimonio negativo de Bs.18,4 billones (= $8,5 millardos). Es decir, el BCV estaría técnicamente quebrado.
Según la Ley, cualquier déficit patrimonial del Banco Central debe ser cubierto con los ingresos ordinarios del Gobierno Central. No obstante, esto sería muy difícil de cumplir (por decirlo suavemente) ya que el monto que se adeuda representa el 16% del Presupuesto del Gobierno Central de este año.
Ante esta dramática realidad, se deben buscar otras opciones para solventar la situación del BCV.
Una sería que el Fonden devolviera los dólares recibidos hasta ahora. Esto obviamente es imposible de concretar pues ese dinero está más que comprometido.
Otra sería hacer lo que sugiere el ex director del BCV, Domingo Maza Zavala, o sea, emitir bonos para compensar el déficit. El problema con esto es que el monto involucrado significaría un incremento de la deuda pública en 20%, lo que sería ilegal por cuanto el BCV terminaría financiando el déficit del Fisco, algo que prohíbe tajantemente la Constitución de 1999.
Maza Zavala también mencionó la posibilidad de amortizar la pérdida con las utilidades cambiarias futuras. Aunque suene terrible, esta opción pareciera ser la más viable: VenEconomía piensa que Venezuela está a las puertas de una devaluación de hasta Bs.3.000:$, lo que representaría una ganancia cambiaria de Bs.21 billones, monto más que suficiente para que se salden las cuentas.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Herald: "Argentina probes Venezuelan's suitcase of cash"
Miami Article Comments
Kirchner seemed ashamed and immediately fired the Deputy Planning Minister on the private airplane, who was in charge of negotiating all the "deals" with Venezuela. Why doesn't Chavez fire the Venezuelan officials from PDVSA on the airplane? May be because he is not ashamed. There has always been corruption by Government officials in Venezuela. The difference now is that they go unpunished even when they are caught "redhanded". Why doesn't somebody ask where did he get $800,000 in cash and what was it for? I don't think it was to go shopping for leather apparel in Buenos Aires! Chavez is the best example, embezzling the country's funds for his "friends" (Fidel, Kirchner, Morales, Correa, Ahmadinejad, and Ortega, while Carlos Andres Perez (previous President) was impeached for the same thing on his first offense. That's the difference between a Democracy with Rule of Law, and a Dictatorship where a Tyrant does what he wants and everyone is scared to tell him otherwise!
Posted by: Carlos Erban
8/9/2007 8:55 PM
3270.10 Report as Violation
Kirchner seemed ashamed and immediately fired the Deputy Planning Minister on the private airplane, who was in charge of negotiating all the "deals" with Venezuela. Why doesn't Chavez fire the Venezuelan officials from PDVSA on the airplane? May be because he is not ashamed. There has always been corruption by Government officials in Venezuela. The difference now is that they go unpunished even when they are caught "redhanded". Why doesn't somebody ask where did he get $800,000 in cash and what was it for? I don't think it was to go shopping for leather apparel in Buenos Aires! Chavez is the best example, embezzling the country's funds for his "friends" (Fidel, Kirchner, Morales, Correa, Ahmadinejad, and Ortega, while Carlos Andres Perez (previous President) was impeached for the same thing on his first offense. That's the difference between a Democracy with Rule of Law, and a Dictatorship where a Tyrant does what he wants and everyone is scared to tell him otherwise!
Posted by: Carlos Erban
8/9/2007 8:55 PM
3270.10 Report as Violation
Wilfredo Avila, funcionario de protocolo de la petrolera venezolana - eluniversal.com
Nacional y Política - eluniversal.com
Mi comentario:
Kirshner despide los funcionarios Argentinos en el avion, por que Chavez no hace lo mismo con los funcionarios de PDVSA? La diferencia entre Chavez y los anteriores en cuanto a la corrupcion, es que nisiquiera se castigan a los corruptos que descrubren con "las manos en la masa." Por que nadie pregunta de donde saco esa cantidad de dinero en efectivo y para quien era ese dinero? No creo que era para sus compras en B. Aires.
Mi comentario:
Kirshner despide los funcionarios Argentinos en el avion, por que Chavez no hace lo mismo con los funcionarios de PDVSA? La diferencia entre Chavez y los anteriores en cuanto a la corrupcion, es que nisiquiera se castigan a los corruptos que descrubren con "las manos en la masa." Por que nadie pregunta de donde saco esa cantidad de dinero en efectivo y para quien era ese dinero? No creo que era para sus compras en B. Aires.
Herald: "Migrants agree: It's harder to get jobs"
Miami Article Comments
My comments:
As Mr. Buchanan said a few years back on Larry King, if the "illegals" were Irish then it would be a different story. However, we do not know how widespread is racism against Hispanics. I am an American citizen who has lived in the U.S. for over 20 years, and for the first time, I can say that I have felt racism against Hispanics. The worst part is that the bigotry is well-accepted and politically correct these days. Listen to Mr. Tancredo -- an Italian descent -- he refers to Hispanics, illegals or legals as an inferior race. How would his ancestors feel when they were discriminated against? Did his ancestors learn English right away? Racism is not accepted for Jews or Blacks, but it is certainly accepted for Hispanics and Muslims. Let's have a debate about Immigration Reform (pros, cons, effect on the Economy, Social Security, etc.) but please keep the racists out of it. They don't care if a Hispanic is legal or illegal, or born in this country for that matter.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
8/9/2007 1:55 PM
My comments:
As Mr. Buchanan said a few years back on Larry King, if the "illegals" were Irish then it would be a different story. However, we do not know how widespread is racism against Hispanics. I am an American citizen who has lived in the U.S. for over 20 years, and for the first time, I can say that I have felt racism against Hispanics. The worst part is that the bigotry is well-accepted and politically correct these days. Listen to Mr. Tancredo -- an Italian descent -- he refers to Hispanics, illegals or legals as an inferior race. How would his ancestors feel when they were discriminated against? Did his ancestors learn English right away? Racism is not accepted for Jews or Blacks, but it is certainly accepted for Hispanics and Muslims. Let's have a debate about Immigration Reform (pros, cons, effect on the Economy, Social Security, etc.) but please keep the racists out of it. They don't care if a Hispanic is legal or illegal, or born in this country for that matter.
Posted by: Carlos Erban
8/9/2007 1:55 PM
Monday, August 6, 2007
"Se Estanca el Progreso con los Mas Probres" (?)
Economía - eluniversal.com
------------
My Comments:
A misleading title to the poverty levels. Here are the facts from the article:
- Overall poverty level has decreased from 29.3% in 1999 to 23.4% in 2006 (-20%)
- Extreme poverty decreased from 9.9% to 9% since 1999 (-9%)
Although some expected a much higher reduction given the 3-4 times higher oil revenues, a 20% reduction on overall and 9% in critical poverty levels is not "a Stagnation on the Progress among Poor"
Mis Comentarios:
Un titulo enganoso sobre el nivel de pobreza: Aqui estan los datos del articulo:
- El nivel total de probreza se redujo de 29.3% en 1999 a 23.4% en 2006 (-20%)
- Extrema pobreza se redujo de 9.9% a 9% desde 1999(-9%)
Aunque algunos esperaban una reduccion mucho mayor dado que los ingresos petroleros son 3-4 veces mas, una reduccion de la pobreza del 20% y de la critica del 9% no es que "Se Estanca el Progreson con los Mas Pobres"
------------
My Comments:
A misleading title to the poverty levels. Here are the facts from the article:
- Overall poverty level has decreased from 29.3% in 1999 to 23.4% in 2006 (-20%)
- Extreme poverty decreased from 9.9% to 9% since 1999 (-9%)
Although some expected a much higher reduction given the 3-4 times higher oil revenues, a 20% reduction on overall and 9% in critical poverty levels is not "a Stagnation on the Progress among Poor"
Mis Comentarios:
Un titulo enganoso sobre el nivel de pobreza: Aqui estan los datos del articulo:
- El nivel total de probreza se redujo de 29.3% en 1999 a 23.4% en 2006 (-20%)
- Extrema pobreza se redujo de 9.9% a 9% desde 1999(-9%)
Aunque algunos esperaban una reduccion mucho mayor dado que los ingresos petroleros son 3-4 veces mas, una reduccion de la pobreza del 20% y de la critica del 9% no es que "Se Estanca el Progreson con los Mas Pobres"
Friday, August 3, 2007
BW: Companies' Love-Hate Relationship with Chavez
JUNE 25, 2007
GLOBAL BUSINESS
By Geri Smith
A Love-Hate Relationship With Chávez
Companies are chafing under the fiery socialist. But in some respects, business has never been better
Just how hard is it to do business in Venezuela? As President Hugo Chávez leads his country toward "21st century socialism," hardly a day passes without another change in the rules restricting companies. Want to export? First get government certification that there's no domestic shortage of your product. Want to import? Prove that the goods aren't available locally. Chávez has already forced global oil giants, phone carriers, and power companies to hand over control of key assets. Now he says he might nationalize banks, hospitals, and steel companies. No wonder foreign direct investment, which averaged $3.2 billion annually during Chávez's first three years in office, plunged to a net outflow of $2.6 billion last year. "It's a bit like the...French Revolution," says Edmond J. Saade, president of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VenAmCham). "Power to the people, death to the nobility.'"
No doubt, Venezuela is a pretty scary place to invest these days. But in some respects business is better than ever. Thanks to soaring oil revenues, Chávez is spending heavily--some $13.3 billion last year alone--to win support for his "Bolivarian Revolution." For the past three years the economy has grown at an 11%-to-12% clip, while consumption has expanded by 18% annually. The poor, 58% of all Venezuelans, have seen their meager household incomes more than double since 2004 thanks to cash stipends, subsidized food, and scholarships from the government's social-development programs. The result: Sales of everything from basics such as Coca-Cola (KO ) and Crest toothpaste to big-ticket items like Ford (F )SUVs and Mercedes-Benz (DCX ) sedans have taken off.
You might call it business' love-hate relationship with Chávez. Local and foreign companies alike are raking in more money than ever in Venezuela. Two-way trade between the U.S. and Venezuela has never been higher. Venezuela exported more than $42 billion to the U.S. last year, including 1 million barrels of oil daily, and imported $9 billion worth of American goods, up 41% from 2005. But since Chávez declared President George W. Bush Public Enemy No. 1, Americans prefer to keep a low profile, even though VenAmCham's 1,100 member companies account for more than 650,000 jobs. "Consumption has been going through the roof, and commercial relations between the U.S. and Venezuela are still workable, but on the political front there is confrontation," says Saade. "American business is caught in the middle."
UNDENIABLE POTENTIAL
Even global oil companies-- Chavez's chief targets so far--are likely to stay put. Although they have been forced to turn over control of their projects to the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Chávez can't afford to alienate them. Ventures involving foreign companies account for 40% of Venezuela's output of 2.4 million barrels a day. For the multinational oil giants, the country is too important to ignore, even if it means they no longer call the shots. "Venezuela's oil potential is so great," says a foreign oil executive who declined to be identified. "We're not making huge returns, but it's not a financial black hole, either."
Other industries are not only putting up with Chávez but also benefiting directly from his programs. Take Intel Corp.: Sales of its microprocessors in Venezuela jumped by 15% in 2006 and look set to grow at the same pace this year as the government equips schools and public offices with new computers. In December, Caracas started a joint venture with China's Lanchao Group to manufacture low-cost machines called "Bolivarian PCs." The venture, 60% owned by Lanchao, will produce 80,000 computers in Venezuela the first year and 150,000 in 2008, including a stripped-down desktop model that will cost $450. Intel says the government alone could buy as many as 300,000 computers. "There's a lot of money in the Venezuelan market now, and it's important to take advantage of that," says Guillermo Deffit, Intel's business-development manager in Venezuela.
Sales of cars and cola are booming, too. Ford and General Motors Corp. (GM ) have manufactured cars in Venezuela for nearly a half-century, but with the strength of the bolivar, imports of pricier models such as the Ford Expedition sport-utility vehicle and GM's Silverado pickup are on the rise. Last year, Ford's sales increased 52%, to nearly 62,000 cars and trucks, as its imports more than tripled, to 28,000. GM's sales jumped 21% last year, to 71,000 vehicles, and so far this year are on track to climb by 50%. And sales of Coke and other beverages made by bottler Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF ) in Venezuela jumped 25% in the first quarter of 2007, in spite of a two-day shutdown of the company's distribution center in March for a surprise audit by tax authorities.
AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
For local companies that have managed to survive Chávez's ever-changing business rules, the fast-growing economy offers some small solace--but few guarantees for the future. "We have fewer competitors every year because people throw in the towel," says the owner of a family company that provides raw materials for a variety of industries. He declined to give his name, fearing government retaliation, but he says his profit margins are getting fatter as he faces less competition. Still, his company has shrunk to just 100 employees from 300 since Chávez came to power in 1999, and sales have fallen by half. Dozens of his friends have left the country in recent years, and one of his top managers is decamping soon for Florida, where many middle-class Venezuelans have made their homes. But he's determined to stick it out.
As Chávez continues his socialist crusade, there are signs of rising discontent: A recent decision to revoke a popular TV network's license sparked outrage among university students, who took to the streets in early June. And the consumption boom is fueling inflation, now running at 18% annually. In any event, the fiery President can hardly do without business. Private companies account for half the government's nonoil tax receipts and 83% of jobs, says Ruth de Krivoy, a former Central Bank president who runs Síntesis Financiera, a Caracas think tank. "The government believes that state-run companies...will take the place of the exploiting' business class," she notes. "But if you erase the private sector from the map, what do you have left? Not much."
Geri L. Smith is BusinessWeek’s Mexico City bureau manager.
GLOBAL BUSINESS
By Geri Smith
A Love-Hate Relationship With Chávez
Companies are chafing under the fiery socialist. But in some respects, business has never been better
Just how hard is it to do business in Venezuela? As President Hugo Chávez leads his country toward "21st century socialism," hardly a day passes without another change in the rules restricting companies. Want to export? First get government certification that there's no domestic shortage of your product. Want to import? Prove that the goods aren't available locally. Chávez has already forced global oil giants, phone carriers, and power companies to hand over control of key assets. Now he says he might nationalize banks, hospitals, and steel companies. No wonder foreign direct investment, which averaged $3.2 billion annually during Chávez's first three years in office, plunged to a net outflow of $2.6 billion last year. "It's a bit like the...French Revolution," says Edmond J. Saade, president of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VenAmCham). "Power to the people, death to the nobility.'"
No doubt, Venezuela is a pretty scary place to invest these days. But in some respects business is better than ever. Thanks to soaring oil revenues, Chávez is spending heavily--some $13.3 billion last year alone--to win support for his "Bolivarian Revolution." For the past three years the economy has grown at an 11%-to-12% clip, while consumption has expanded by 18% annually. The poor, 58% of all Venezuelans, have seen their meager household incomes more than double since 2004 thanks to cash stipends, subsidized food, and scholarships from the government's social-development programs. The result: Sales of everything from basics such as Coca-Cola (KO ) and Crest toothpaste to big-ticket items like Ford (F )SUVs and Mercedes-Benz (DCX ) sedans have taken off.
You might call it business' love-hate relationship with Chávez. Local and foreign companies alike are raking in more money than ever in Venezuela. Two-way trade between the U.S. and Venezuela has never been higher. Venezuela exported more than $42 billion to the U.S. last year, including 1 million barrels of oil daily, and imported $9 billion worth of American goods, up 41% from 2005. But since Chávez declared President George W. Bush Public Enemy No. 1, Americans prefer to keep a low profile, even though VenAmCham's 1,100 member companies account for more than 650,000 jobs. "Consumption has been going through the roof, and commercial relations between the U.S. and Venezuela are still workable, but on the political front there is confrontation," says Saade. "American business is caught in the middle."
UNDENIABLE POTENTIAL
Even global oil companies-- Chavez's chief targets so far--are likely to stay put. Although they have been forced to turn over control of their projects to the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Chávez can't afford to alienate them. Ventures involving foreign companies account for 40% of Venezuela's output of 2.4 million barrels a day. For the multinational oil giants, the country is too important to ignore, even if it means they no longer call the shots. "Venezuela's oil potential is so great," says a foreign oil executive who declined to be identified. "We're not making huge returns, but it's not a financial black hole, either."
Other industries are not only putting up with Chávez but also benefiting directly from his programs. Take Intel Corp.: Sales of its microprocessors in Venezuela jumped by 15% in 2006 and look set to grow at the same pace this year as the government equips schools and public offices with new computers. In December, Caracas started a joint venture with China's Lanchao Group to manufacture low-cost machines called "Bolivarian PCs." The venture, 60% owned by Lanchao, will produce 80,000 computers in Venezuela the first year and 150,000 in 2008, including a stripped-down desktop model that will cost $450. Intel says the government alone could buy as many as 300,000 computers. "There's a lot of money in the Venezuelan market now, and it's important to take advantage of that," says Guillermo Deffit, Intel's business-development manager in Venezuela.
Sales of cars and cola are booming, too. Ford and General Motors Corp. (GM ) have manufactured cars in Venezuela for nearly a half-century, but with the strength of the bolivar, imports of pricier models such as the Ford Expedition sport-utility vehicle and GM's Silverado pickup are on the rise. Last year, Ford's sales increased 52%, to nearly 62,000 cars and trucks, as its imports more than tripled, to 28,000. GM's sales jumped 21% last year, to 71,000 vehicles, and so far this year are on track to climb by 50%. And sales of Coke and other beverages made by bottler Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF ) in Venezuela jumped 25% in the first quarter of 2007, in spite of a two-day shutdown of the company's distribution center in March for a surprise audit by tax authorities.
AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
For local companies that have managed to survive Chávez's ever-changing business rules, the fast-growing economy offers some small solace--but few guarantees for the future. "We have fewer competitors every year because people throw in the towel," says the owner of a family company that provides raw materials for a variety of industries. He declined to give his name, fearing government retaliation, but he says his profit margins are getting fatter as he faces less competition. Still, his company has shrunk to just 100 employees from 300 since Chávez came to power in 1999, and sales have fallen by half. Dozens of his friends have left the country in recent years, and one of his top managers is decamping soon for Florida, where many middle-class Venezuelans have made their homes. But he's determined to stick it out.
As Chávez continues his socialist crusade, there are signs of rising discontent: A recent decision to revoke a popular TV network's license sparked outrage among university students, who took to the streets in early June. And the consumption boom is fueling inflation, now running at 18% annually. In any event, the fiery President can hardly do without business. Private companies account for half the government's nonoil tax receipts and 83% of jobs, says Ruth de Krivoy, a former Central Bank president who runs Síntesis Financiera, a Caracas think tank. "The government believes that state-run companies...will take the place of the exploiting' business class," she notes. "But if you erase the private sector from the map, what do you have left? Not much."
Geri L. Smith is BusinessWeek’s Mexico City bureau manager.
Zeta: Yankees Go Home, Pedro Penzini
Yankees go home! / Pedro Penzini L.
Revista Zeta / Miércoles, Julio 25, 2007
Bajo la sombra de ocho aviones rusos Sukhoi 30, que sobrevolaron las instalaciones petroleras para celebrar la toma de la faja petrolera del Orinoco, ya al grito de "abajo el imperio norteamericano" el presidente Hugo Chávez signó el destino energético del país. "El proceso de la apertura petrolera fue un "intento del imperialismo de adueñarse para siempre de la más grande reserva del mundo".
Una de las consecuencias fue la decisión de irse del país tomada por dos trasnacionales petroleras estadounidenses: la ExxonMobil y ConocoPhillips. Las negociaciones hasta ahora no han ido por buen camino, sobretodo por el lenguaje del presidente venezolano quien quizás no ha entendido la magnitud que representa enemistarse con estos gigantes petroleros.
Wall Street ya da por descontado que Exxon y Conoco serán compensadas con los activos de Citgo en los EEUU. Venezuela ha comenzado a mostrar preocupación por el destino de sus activos en EEUU por lo que el embajador venezolano Bernardo Álvarez, realizó un viaje de buena voluntad a Texas tratando de bajar el tono del lenguaje hostil y comenzar a tener un trato mas diplomático con estas empresas.
"Hemos demostrado que somos gente de diálogo ¿?. Nadie quiere ir al arbitraje". "Quizá lo que verán sea un reajuste de la relación" "Nos necesitamos el uno al otro" dijo Álvarez demostrando que quizás subestimaron a estos dos gigantes petroleros. A continuación haremos un análisis de quienes son estas dos empresas y porque quizás fue un error haberlas despedido.
EXXON DISPARA EL DJIA A 14.000
Pareciera que los mercados internacionales celebraron la salida de ExxonMobil y de ConocoPhillips de Venezuela ya que ambas acciones se dispararon después de conocerse la noticia logrando nuevos altos históricos superando los $90 por acción.
El índice Dow Jones de Industriales, principal indicador de Wall Street, rompió la barrera de los 14.000 puntos, animado por los resultados empresariales y el descenso de los precios mayoristas en Estados Unidos. Uno de los principales componentes de las 30 empresas que componen este importantísimo índice las cuales son seleccionadas por el equipo editorial del Wall Street Journal es precisamente ExxonMobil.
No solamente ExxonMobil hizo la mayor contribución al aumento del índice Dow Jones sino también ha colaborado significativamente al índice Standard and Poor's 500 durante el mercado alcista actual. La acción se ha disparado 173% desde el 9 de octubre del 2002, añadiendo 38.4 puntos al índice y ahora representa 3.7% del valor de mercado del S&P 500.
Según los analistas el alza de las acciones se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años. Pero algunos analistas de Wall Street opinan que el mercado ya da por descontando que Exxon y ConocoPhillips podrían terminar apoderándose de los activos de CITGO en los EEUU incluyendo las codiciadas refinerías en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco.
Exxon vale más de $500,000 millones. Según el Nuevo Herald de Miami Exxon Mobil Corp., la empresa petrolera fundada por John D. Rockefeller en 1882 ya se convirtió en la única compañía cotizada con un valor superior al medio billón de dólares. Las acciones de Exxon Mobil subieron a un nivel que ha elevando la capitalización de mercado de la compañía de Irving, estado de Texas, a $50507,607 millones.
Eso es más que la producción económica anual conjunta de Finlandia, Argentina y Kazajstán. . Exxon es el ejemplo clásico de lo que debe ser una empresa petrolera occidental integrada y el aumento de precio en las acciones ciertamente sugiere que hay que inverir en el sector de la energía.
Según el Herald los beneficios de los productores de crudo y gas natural se han disparado conforme aumentaba la demanda, estimulada por el crecimiento económico global, particularmente en China y Estados Unidos.
Un cuello de botella en la capacidad de refinación de EEUU también ha acrecentado las ganancias de compañías integradas como Exxon Mobil que producen, procesan y comercializan petróleo. El margen de ganancia promedio al convertir un barril de petróleo en gasolina y combustible de calefacción fue de $23.68 en el segundo trimestre, frente a $5.13 hace cinco años.
LA SUERTE DE CONOCO
Según el portal Descifrado los altos precios de ambas acciones reflejan que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose.
Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) ¨le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.
Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados. Conoco ya estimó sus pérdidas por su salida de Venezuela en unos 4 mil 500 millones de dólares.
LA LISTA GLOBAL 500 DE FORTUNE
La revista Fortune acaba de publicar su lista anual ¨the Global 500¨ en la que realizan un ranking entre las 500 empresas mas rentables del mundo. Este año Exxon Mobil coronó el primer lugar como la empresa de mayor rentabilidad pero obtuvo el segundo lugar en ingresos siendo superada por WallMart . Ninguna empresa venezolana aparece entre las afortunadas 500 y tan sólo dos países latinoamericanos aparecen en la lista con 5 empresas cada una: Méjico y Brasil.
Llama la atención que PDVSA ya no aparece entre estas 500 empresas y ni siquiera fue mencionada entre las listas de la petroleras mas importantes del mundo cuando apenas pocos años atrás era considerada una de las mejores del mundo ubicándose en los primeros lugares en el ranking de las Global 500 de Fortune. Peor aun es la información revelada por Ramón Espinasa de que: ¨PDVSA esta en caída libre¨ .
Según reveló un informe la producción de crudos ha bajado sostenidamente y este año coinciden la reducción de las exportaciones y la disminución de los precios. Espinasa llegó a la conclusión que vaticina un futuro ¨crudo¨para Venezuela: "Si una caída del precio del 9% se combina con un descenso de las exportaciones en un volumen de 15%, el ingreso petrolero del gobierno bajará un 50% ".
INFORME TÉCNICO
Las utilidades de Exxon Mobil continuaron creciendo en el 2007 gracias a los altos precios del crudo. Sus utilidades subieron 9.3% a $ 39.5 millardos rompiendo su propio record de la lista Global 500 de Fortune que ella misma impuso el año pasado por $36.1 millardo de utilidades. En cuanto a ConocoPhillips, esta alcanzó el 9 lugar con utilidades de $15.550 millones de dólares.
Desde que Conoco se fusionó con Phillips Petroleum la empresa arrojo un crecimiento de utilidades fantástico: 72% en 2004 y 66% en 2005 por el aumento en los precios del gas natural. Sin embargo el año pasado las utilidades crecieron apenas 15% debido al aumento del suministro de gas natural en los EEUU que presionaron los precios a la baja.
Para ExxonMobil la salida de la faja del Orinoco representa apenas el 1% de sus utilidades y han sido más herméticos con el caso no dando ningún tipo de declaraciones al respecto.
ConocoPhillips es la mas perjudicada con la salida, la tercera empresa petrolera de los EEUU ya reportó una perdida de $4.5 millardos por salir de Venezuela y señaló que las utilidades para el primer trimestre serán menores a las esperadas de aproximadamente $22.8 millardos. Su participación en la faja representaba un 4% del total de las utilidades de la empresa que superaron $800 millardos en el 2006.
WALL STREET
Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente.
Las acciones de la petrolera subieron más de 10 dólares logrando nuevos altos en los precios de la acción superando los 90 dólares al igual que las de Exxon (XOM) . Según los analistas esta subida se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años, pero también han previsto un vuelco positivo para Conoco después de su ruptura con Venezuela.
Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados.
Descifrado, insiste es que en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco, ConocoPhillips podría terminar con activos de Citgo en sus manos, incluyendo refinerías (aunque llegar a este punto podría tardar años). Reflejan además, que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.
¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬
VENEZUELA SANGRA...
Y no me preguntes lo que debes hacer, dime lo que estás haciendo por tu patria...
Somos la magia del verbo...
Somos tinta indeleble vertida en la sangre de un pueblo.
Hace muchos años, un 15 de agosto, en el monte Sacro de Roma, el joven mantuano y oligarca, Simón José Antonio de la Santísima Trinidad Bolívar Palacios y Blanco, juró ante su maestro la libertad para su patria, ofreciendo su vida para cumplirlo. ¡Hoy los que deberían ser servidores públicos y garantes de ese juramento, lo pisotean! Violentando la vida, derechos y Libertad de los ciudadanos.
Solo enviamos muy pocos y más seleccionados mensajes por este medio. ¡El único de verdad libre!. Participa y escríbenos, difunde el mensaje, convoca y suscribe a tus relacionados...
Se preguntará: ¿De dónde obtuvimos su dirección? Es fácil, digamos que un amigo suyo nos la facilitó. Si no le interesa avísenos, no se enrolle, nosotros si respetaremos su Libertad. Sólo esperamos que algún día podamos ayudarlo retransmitiendo su mensaje a miles, miles y miles de personas encadenadas a este grupo por y para la LIBERTAD...
CON JUSTICIA Y DEMOCRACIA EN EL CAMINO DE LA LIBERTAD
Revista Zeta / Miércoles, Julio 25, 2007
Bajo la sombra de ocho aviones rusos Sukhoi 30, que sobrevolaron las instalaciones petroleras para celebrar la toma de la faja petrolera del Orinoco, ya al grito de "abajo el imperio norteamericano" el presidente Hugo Chávez signó el destino energético del país. "El proceso de la apertura petrolera fue un "intento del imperialismo de adueñarse para siempre de la más grande reserva del mundo".
Una de las consecuencias fue la decisión de irse del país tomada por dos trasnacionales petroleras estadounidenses: la ExxonMobil y ConocoPhillips. Las negociaciones hasta ahora no han ido por buen camino, sobretodo por el lenguaje del presidente venezolano quien quizás no ha entendido la magnitud que representa enemistarse con estos gigantes petroleros.
Wall Street ya da por descontado que Exxon y Conoco serán compensadas con los activos de Citgo en los EEUU. Venezuela ha comenzado a mostrar preocupación por el destino de sus activos en EEUU por lo que el embajador venezolano Bernardo Álvarez, realizó un viaje de buena voluntad a Texas tratando de bajar el tono del lenguaje hostil y comenzar a tener un trato mas diplomático con estas empresas.
"Hemos demostrado que somos gente de diálogo ¿?. Nadie quiere ir al arbitraje". "Quizá lo que verán sea un reajuste de la relación" "Nos necesitamos el uno al otro" dijo Álvarez demostrando que quizás subestimaron a estos dos gigantes petroleros. A continuación haremos un análisis de quienes son estas dos empresas y porque quizás fue un error haberlas despedido.
EXXON DISPARA EL DJIA A 14.000
Pareciera que los mercados internacionales celebraron la salida de ExxonMobil y de ConocoPhillips de Venezuela ya que ambas acciones se dispararon después de conocerse la noticia logrando nuevos altos históricos superando los $90 por acción.
El índice Dow Jones de Industriales, principal indicador de Wall Street, rompió la barrera de los 14.000 puntos, animado por los resultados empresariales y el descenso de los precios mayoristas en Estados Unidos. Uno de los principales componentes de las 30 empresas que componen este importantísimo índice las cuales son seleccionadas por el equipo editorial del Wall Street Journal es precisamente ExxonMobil.
No solamente ExxonMobil hizo la mayor contribución al aumento del índice Dow Jones sino también ha colaborado significativamente al índice Standard and Poor's 500 durante el mercado alcista actual. La acción se ha disparado 173% desde el 9 de octubre del 2002, añadiendo 38.4 puntos al índice y ahora representa 3.7% del valor de mercado del S&P 500.
Según los analistas el alza de las acciones se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años. Pero algunos analistas de Wall Street opinan que el mercado ya da por descontando que Exxon y ConocoPhillips podrían terminar apoderándose de los activos de CITGO en los EEUU incluyendo las codiciadas refinerías en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco.
Exxon vale más de $500,000 millones. Según el Nuevo Herald de Miami Exxon Mobil Corp., la empresa petrolera fundada por John D. Rockefeller en 1882 ya se convirtió en la única compañía cotizada con un valor superior al medio billón de dólares. Las acciones de Exxon Mobil subieron a un nivel que ha elevando la capitalización de mercado de la compañía de Irving, estado de Texas, a $50507,607 millones.
Eso es más que la producción económica anual conjunta de Finlandia, Argentina y Kazajstán. . Exxon es el ejemplo clásico de lo que debe ser una empresa petrolera occidental integrada y el aumento de precio en las acciones ciertamente sugiere que hay que inverir en el sector de la energía.
Según el Herald los beneficios de los productores de crudo y gas natural se han disparado conforme aumentaba la demanda, estimulada por el crecimiento económico global, particularmente en China y Estados Unidos.
Un cuello de botella en la capacidad de refinación de EEUU también ha acrecentado las ganancias de compañías integradas como Exxon Mobil que producen, procesan y comercializan petróleo. El margen de ganancia promedio al convertir un barril de petróleo en gasolina y combustible de calefacción fue de $23.68 en el segundo trimestre, frente a $5.13 hace cinco años.
LA SUERTE DE CONOCO
Según el portal Descifrado los altos precios de ambas acciones reflejan que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose.
Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) ¨le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.
Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados. Conoco ya estimó sus pérdidas por su salida de Venezuela en unos 4 mil 500 millones de dólares.
LA LISTA GLOBAL 500 DE FORTUNE
La revista Fortune acaba de publicar su lista anual ¨the Global 500¨ en la que realizan un ranking entre las 500 empresas mas rentables del mundo. Este año Exxon Mobil coronó el primer lugar como la empresa de mayor rentabilidad pero obtuvo el segundo lugar en ingresos siendo superada por WallMart . Ninguna empresa venezolana aparece entre las afortunadas 500 y tan sólo dos países latinoamericanos aparecen en la lista con 5 empresas cada una: Méjico y Brasil.
Llama la atención que PDVSA ya no aparece entre estas 500 empresas y ni siquiera fue mencionada entre las listas de la petroleras mas importantes del mundo cuando apenas pocos años atrás era considerada una de las mejores del mundo ubicándose en los primeros lugares en el ranking de las Global 500 de Fortune. Peor aun es la información revelada por Ramón Espinasa de que: ¨PDVSA esta en caída libre¨ .
Según reveló un informe la producción de crudos ha bajado sostenidamente y este año coinciden la reducción de las exportaciones y la disminución de los precios. Espinasa llegó a la conclusión que vaticina un futuro ¨crudo¨para Venezuela: "Si una caída del precio del 9% se combina con un descenso de las exportaciones en un volumen de 15%, el ingreso petrolero del gobierno bajará un 50% ".
INFORME TÉCNICO
Las utilidades de Exxon Mobil continuaron creciendo en el 2007 gracias a los altos precios del crudo. Sus utilidades subieron 9.3% a $ 39.5 millardos rompiendo su propio record de la lista Global 500 de Fortune que ella misma impuso el año pasado por $36.1 millardo de utilidades. En cuanto a ConocoPhillips, esta alcanzó el 9 lugar con utilidades de $15.550 millones de dólares.
Desde que Conoco se fusionó con Phillips Petroleum la empresa arrojo un crecimiento de utilidades fantástico: 72% en 2004 y 66% en 2005 por el aumento en los precios del gas natural. Sin embargo el año pasado las utilidades crecieron apenas 15% debido al aumento del suministro de gas natural en los EEUU que presionaron los precios a la baja.
Para ExxonMobil la salida de la faja del Orinoco representa apenas el 1% de sus utilidades y han sido más herméticos con el caso no dando ningún tipo de declaraciones al respecto.
ConocoPhillips es la mas perjudicada con la salida, la tercera empresa petrolera de los EEUU ya reportó una perdida de $4.5 millardos por salir de Venezuela y señaló que las utilidades para el primer trimestre serán menores a las esperadas de aproximadamente $22.8 millardos. Su participación en la faja representaba un 4% del total de las utilidades de la empresa que superaron $800 millardos en el 2006.
WALL STREET
Descifrado considera que a Conoco (COP) le cayó bien la despedida porque aunque en un principio la salida de Venezuela sin un acuerdo con las autoridades representó un impacto para la empresa, en apenas unos días su cotización se recuperó notablemente.
Las acciones de la petrolera subieron más de 10 dólares logrando nuevos altos en los precios de la acción superando los 90 dólares al igual que las de Exxon (XOM) . Según los analistas esta subida se debe al informe de la AIE que prevé un recorte en los inventarios de petróleo y gas durante los próximos años, pero también han previsto un vuelco positivo para Conoco después de su ruptura con Venezuela.
Un importante analista de Wall Street especuló que ConocoPhillips podría recibir algunas refinerías de Citgo como compensación por la ruptura del contrato de dichos proyectos anticipados.
Descifrado, insiste es que en un acuerdo judicial para resarcir los costos de la salida de la Faja del Orinoco, ConocoPhillips podría terminar con activos de Citgo en sus manos, incluyendo refinerías (aunque llegar a este punto podría tardar años). Reflejan además, que el caso de la salida de Venezuela no es tan grave, porque la rentabilidad del crudo venezolano proveniente de las asociaciones estratégicas venía reduciéndose. Los menos optimistas consideran que Conoco debe tener cuidado con su acceso a depósitos de crudo para no quedarse sin combustible.
¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬
VENEZUELA SANGRA...
Y no me preguntes lo que debes hacer, dime lo que estás haciendo por tu patria...
Somos la magia del verbo...
Somos tinta indeleble vertida en la sangre de un pueblo.
Hace muchos años, un 15 de agosto, en el monte Sacro de Roma, el joven mantuano y oligarca, Simón José Antonio de la Santísima Trinidad Bolívar Palacios y Blanco, juró ante su maestro la libertad para su patria, ofreciendo su vida para cumplirlo. ¡Hoy los que deberían ser servidores públicos y garantes de ese juramento, lo pisotean! Violentando la vida, derechos y Libertad de los ciudadanos.
Solo enviamos muy pocos y más seleccionados mensajes por este medio. ¡El único de verdad libre!. Participa y escríbenos, difunde el mensaje, convoca y suscribe a tus relacionados...
Se preguntará: ¿De dónde obtuvimos su dirección? Es fácil, digamos que un amigo suyo nos la facilitó. Si no le interesa avísenos, no se enrolle, nosotros si respetaremos su Libertad. Sólo esperamos que algún día podamos ayudarlo retransmitiendo su mensaje a miles, miles y miles de personas encadenadas a este grupo por y para la LIBERTAD...
CON JUSTICIA Y DEMOCRACIA EN EL CAMINO DE LA LIBERTAD
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
Corruption rankings hold some good news - 07/29/2007 - MiamiHerald.com (Venezuela #2!)
My Comments:
Although many do not believe these indicators and/or variables used by the World Bank, for me what's most important is how do we (Venezuelans) compare vs. the rest of L.America and the trend, worsening for the past 8 years. The obvious difference with Haiti is that Venezuela exports 2.5-3 millions of barrels per day at almost $80/b -- there is more money than ever, unfortunately to steal!!
------------------
Aunque muchos no creen en estos indicadores y varibles utilizadas por el Banco Mundial, creo que los mas importante es como nos comparamos vs. el resto de L. America y la tendencia, como ha empeorado en los ultimos 8 anos. The diferencia obvia con Haiti es que Venezuela exporta entre 2,5-3 millones de barriles diarios a casi $80/b -- hay mas dinero que nunca para desafortunadamente robar!!!!
Corruption rankings hold some good news - 07/29/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Although many do not believe these indicators and/or variables used by the World Bank, for me what's most important is how do we (Venezuelans) compare vs. the rest of L.America and the trend, worsening for the past 8 years. The obvious difference with Haiti is that Venezuela exports 2.5-3 millions of barrels per day at almost $80/b -- there is more money than ever, unfortunately to steal!!
------------------
Aunque muchos no creen en estos indicadores y varibles utilizadas por el Banco Mundial, creo que los mas importante es como nos comparamos vs. el resto de L. America y la tendencia, como ha empeorado en los ultimos 8 anos. The diferencia obvia con Haiti es que Venezuela exporta entre 2,5-3 millones de barriles diarios a casi $80/b -- hay mas dinero que nunca para desafortunadamente robar!!!!
Corruption rankings hold some good news - 07/29/2007 - MiamiHerald.com
Friday, July 27, 2007
Economist Intelligence Unit - Venezuela Forecast
Economic data
Jul 3rd 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Source: Country Data
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecast is based on the assumption that the president, Hugo Chavez, will stay in power throughout the outlook period. His victory in the presidential poll in December 2006 extends his term of office to 2012, and there is little meaningful organised opposition. The political environment will remain polarised, particularly in the context of government policy radicalisation, which also has the potential to intensify conflicts within the broad government alliance. In the medium term, this could reduce support for the president and further erode political stability and governability.
The radical economic policy agenda of the government, which is centred on expanding the state-led development model, will exacerbate deficiencies in the business environment, and Venezuela will remain a challenging place in which to invest. Investment in most sectors is unlikely to thrive against a background of distortionary macroeconomic policy (with price and exchange controls expected to be retained), rising threats to property and contract rights, unpredictable state intervention, and a growing bureaucratic burden. Even in the dominant energy sector, foreign investment will be below potential, as a result of legal uncertainty and an emerging emphasis on links with investors from“friendly”countries. The burden of oil investment will fall increasingly on the public sector, but here there are questions over efficiency and technical capacity.
A steady decline in oil prices from record highs is projected in the medium term, but the rise in essentially permanent spending commitments makes a fiscal retrenchment unlikely. The result will be a widening fiscal deficit and a rise in the public debt stock (although this is from modest levels by regional standards). The long-standing structural problems of oil dependency (which requires a comprehensive reform of the non-oil tax system) and an inefficient and costly state (which would require large-scale redundancies to reverse) are unlikely to be tackled within the forecast period.
Venezuela is at the peak of another oil-fuelled boom. In the past, oil-fuelled booms have been followed by spectacular crashes in the wake of oil price falls. However, with world oil prices expected to remain high (by historical comparison) for a prolonged period, the economic cycle is likely to prove to be more drawn out in this case. Our assumption of a gradual decline in oil prices, combined with an unfavourable climate for private enterprise, implies a gradual deceleration of investment growth and of the fiscal stimulus. Growth will slow to around 3% over the medium term as a result. Our oil price forecast also implies yearly step devaluations of the bolivar from 2008.
Key indicators 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real GDP growth (%) 10.3 5.2 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.8
Consumer price inflation (av; %) 13.7 18.2 22.9 15.6 14.0 13.6
Budget balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -4.1 -4.4 -2.1 -1.6 -0.8
Current-account balance (% of GDP) 14.9 7.6 5.0 2.5 0.6 -1.5
Commercial banks' prime rate (%; av) 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.0 17.0 17.0
Exchange rate Bs:US$ (av) 2,147.0 2,147.0 2,700.0 3,204.2 3,662.5 4,158.3
Exchange rate Bs:€(av) 2,695.9 2,920.2 3,732.8 4,213.5 4,678.8 5,239.5
Thursday, July 26, 2007
“Lo Que Ustedes No Leen Sobre Venezuela (en EEUU)”
(Publicado originalmente en Inglés el 20 de Julio del 2007 – traducción literal)
Acabo de llegar de mi viaje de 2 semanas en Venezuela. Estuve en Margarita hace 2 años pero no había ido a Caracas ni al interior del país en casi 5 años.
Como un crítico feroz de Chávez, tengo que admitir que hay grandes mejoras de las que no se leen especialmente en EEUU. Yo he vivido casi 20 años en Venezuela y casi 20 años en EEUU, principalmente en Miami. Yo trato de leer todos los principales diarios y escuchar casi todos los noticieros que pueda sobre Venezuela y Chávez. Yo estoy de acuerdo con casi el 100% de lo que se escribe sobre Chávez, y en particular de periodistas que respeto tanto en Venezuela como en EEUU. Sin embargo solo se escribe o se escucha un punto de vista. (En EEUU) no se escucha el otro punto de vista.
Como le comente a mis amigos y familiares, según mi humilde punto de vista, hay 3 principales problemas con Chávez que debemos colocar en el tope de la lista (de muchos más):
- Las relaciones internacionales: nuestros amigos más cercanos son Cuba e Irán y tenemos relaciones horribles no solo con EEUU pero también muy frías (siendo sutil) con Europa, México, Chile, y pronto Brasil. Mi principal preocupación es Irán;
- La división del país en 2 grupos: Chavista y "Escuálidos y Golpistas". Esto tiene mayores consecuencias por todo el odio creado por Chávez especialmente entre las familias. Si firmaste el referéndum contra Chávez no puedes participar en programas del Gobierno (que representa la mayoría de la economía);
- La propiedad privada: eliminara Chávez la propiedad privada de todos – como en Cuba? Para la mayoría, como yo, creemos que no es posible, pero en Cuba quizás pensaron lo mismo.
Sin embargo vamos hablar un poco sobre lo que ustedes no leen. Cuando aterrice a Maiquetía (el principal aeropuerto internacional cerca de Caracas) está completamente renovado. Uno se siente como si estuviera en un aeropuerto moderno en EEUU. Yo he estado en más de 80 países y este aeropuerto se puede considerar entre unos de los de nivel más alto. Además está en plena construcción nuevos estacionamientos, hoteles, etc. El proceso de Inmigración fue eficiente con toda la tecnología más moderna de sistemas. Lo que no me agrado del todo fue ver un 747 de la aerolínea Iraní al lado de nuestro avión de American Airlines – un buen ejemplo de los contrastes entre las cosas buenas y las malas.
El propósito principal de mi viaje era ir a los juegos de la Copa América y visitar algunos familiares y amigos que no había visto en muchos años. De las 2 semanas pase el 80% manejando por casi toda Venezuela para ir a los juegos de futbol. Las mejoras de infraestructura son impresionantes: autopistas, puentes nuevos (el viaducto de La Guaira a Caracas se puede comparar con los de los Alpes). Yo no podía recocer los pueblos que no había visitado en 10 años por todas las nuevas vías, autopistas, y edificios. Lo que más me impresiono fue la construcción de los 9 estadios de futbol (3 completamente nuevos y 6 completamente renovados). Si ustedes vieron algunos juegos por la televisión quizás pensaban que estaban viendo un juego del Mundial de Alemania 2006. Tengo que también decir que entrar y salir de los estadios de Maturín y Barquisimeto fue una pesadilla. Los asientos no estaban enumerados y estaban sobrevendidos, con poca o ninguna seguridad y los baños y pasillos sin terminar. Pero si vemos el balance era impresionante positivo. En Miami llevamos 10 años discutiendo para construir un estadio de beisbol y no hay manera que se pueda construir con todo y eso que el equipo (de los Marlins) ha ganado 2 Series Mundiales en 10 años.
También quede impresionado con Caracas. Cuando uno maneja por la Francisco de Miranda y la Libertador, las 2 principales avenidas de Caracas, se ven muchos edificios nuevos y modernos. Hay que darle crédito a los Alcaldes de Chacao, Baruta y el Hatillo (los pocos que quedan de la Oposición). Conozco personalmente a los de Chacao y el Hatillo, y no me sorprende en absoluto su buena labor. Chacao es un municipio del 1er mundo en un país del 3er mundo (esta labor comenzó con Irene Sáez – la ex-Miss Universo que se lanzo contra Chávez en las primeras elecciones).
Yo necesitaba una cedula nueva (Bolivariana). Chequeamos primero en el Internet para ver donde estaba el operativo ese día. Cuando llegamos a Chacao le preguntamos a un policía motorizado de Chacao. Primero averiguo por radio el lugar exacto y después nos dijo que lo siguiéramos al sitio correcto. Por cierto, me saque la cedula relativamente rápido y no tuve que sobornar a nadie (como era antes). Los empleados del Gobierno eran todos muy profesionales y eficientes. Por cierto, en el aeropuerto, yo le mostré al oficial de Emigración mi pasaporte Venezolano y el Americano y también me trataron muy bien. Yo tenía dudas de mostrar mi pasaporte Americano.
También fui a Cūa – un pueblo suburbano a las afueras de Caracas – por 2 días. Llegando a Cua, de la autopista se ve una estación que parecía espacial. Esta es la nueva estación de tren que llega a Caracas en 20 minutos. No me monte en el tren pero nunca he visto una estación como esta en EEUU, Japón o Francia. Desafortunadamente se suponía que iban a poner el tren más rápido del mundo pero por la corrupción pusieron uno simplemente rápido.
Finalmente, me contaron que la gente pobre no solo puede obtener medicinas y atención medica gratis, créditos preferenciales para un carro, pero además una casa gratis!!!! Aunque solo se han construido como 10.000, esto es un programa increíble. Tengo que investigar más como funciona este programa. Mi primo renuncio la Coca Cola y ahora tiene una compañía de construcción con un socio de estas viviendas .
También me entere que Chavez perdono los créditos de Fundayacucho, un programa de becas y créditos (a intereses muy bajos y provisiones que perdonaban cierta porción según el desempeño del estudiante) para estudiantes Venezolanos en el exterior. Yo fui uno de los afortunados de beneficiarme con Fundayacucho para realizar mi MBA en Harvard Business School. (En aquel entonces) Fundayacucho me prestó $70.000 para la matricula, vivienda y libros, y me perdonaron $35.000 en base a desempeño. Tuve que pagarlo inmediatamente para poder permanecer en EEUU. La mayoría de mis amigos y familiares que fueron a las Universidades Ivy League (las mejores universidades de EEUU) estaban con Fundayacucho pero casi todos se quedaron en EEUU. Me acuerdo que ninguno de mis amigos en Harvard de otros países tenía un programa como este.
Mis familiares y amigos de la Oposición me dicen "si, es todo verdad, pero lo malo hace contrapeso sobre lo bueno" Yo estoy de acuerdo con ellos pero nadie habla de lo "bueno". La mayoría de la población Venezolana está afectada directamente por lo "bueno" y no mucho por lo "malo". También quiero mencionar que no sentí en ningún momento que no podía decir lo quería (pero lo evite entre Chavista no conocidos). Estuve viendo una entrevista en Globovision del ex-Ministro de Defensa y no podía creer las preguntas y acusaciones que la entrevistadora hacia de corrupción y a Chávez. Aunque sean ciertas, mi punto es que me parece que la absoluta falta de liberta de expresión es exagerada. Yo veo O'Reilly, Hannity & Colmes, Matthews, y casi todos los programas del Domingo (en EEUU) y nunco he visto un entrevistador acusar a un oficial del Gobierno de esa manera.
Yo siempre he votado en contra de Chávez y me considero radicalmente opuesto a las políticas y el comportamiento de Chávez, pero no se puede ignorar que algo de lo "bueno" se ha hecho con los Petrodólares, y algunos periodistas en EEUU tampoco deberían ignorarlo.
Disfrute mucho mi viaje a Venezuela y no puedo esperar volver pronto. Yo reconozco que mi experiencia no es una muestra representativa, pero quería mencionar lo que ustedes no van a leer especialmente en los diarios en EEUU.
Parte II – publicada el 22 de Julio del 2007
He recibido muchos comentarios de amigos y familiares de ambos lados del tema. Aprecio todos sus comentarios porque pienso que necesitamos un debate productivo, que desafortunadamente, no tenemos en la actualidad, por que los "radicales" de ambos lados se han adueñado del debate.
Déjenme aclarar que no apoyo a Chávez. Todo lo contrario, vote contra él en todos los procesos electorales y participe en el "firmazo" Estoy orgulloso y lo haría otra vez. También pienso que él hizo trampa en el referéndum, y que las elecciones (de Diciembre) no fueron democráticas por que estaban bajo amenazas del Gobierno. Nadie sabe por quién hubiese votado la mayoría sin estar bajo alguna amenaza de retribución. El punto de mi artículo era escribir sobre algunas de las razones porque Chávez todavía tiene mucho apoyo especialmente de los pobres. Aquí en Miami, la cobertura es muy deficiente. Los programas de TV solo invitan radicales que solo hablan de cómo tumbar o eliminar a Chávez. Aquí la gente ve Baily (que se ha convertido en un comediante que llama a Chávez matón a diario) y Polos Opuestos donde invitan a Patricia Poleo y Orlando Urdaneta para dar su punto de vista y algún líder exiliado Cubano que nunca ha estado en Venezuela o no tiene idea de lo que está pasando, solo diciendo que todo es como en Cuba. Los artículos y columnas del Herald, WSJ, NYT son superficiales, en el mejor de los casos y solo hablan de lo obvio. Yo conozco varios líderes jóvenes de la Oposición, que no son radicales, y deberían darles chance de explicar la situación, especialmente para el público de Miami. Este problema es bien complicado y profundo, por eso menciono algunas de las razones por que Chávez tiene apoyo, para empezar un debate productivo. Esperemos que los estudiantes universitarios den el ejemplo y empiecen un verdadero debate.
The First Law of Petropolitics by Friedman
There are a lot "papers" on "Dutch Disease" by Academics, but I found a great article by Thomas Friedman from NYT (I usually don't agree with many of his views) but I agree with this one very much. It certainly helps explain the situation in Venezuela in layman's terms.
-----------------
The First Law of Petropolitics
By: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - For The North County Times
When I heard the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declare that the Holocaust was a "myth," I couldn't help asking myself: "I wonder if the president of Iran would be talking this way if the price of oil were $20 a barrel today rather than $60 a barrel."
When I heard Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez telling British Prime Minister Tony Blair to "go right to hell" and telling his supporters that the U.S.-sponsored Free Trade Area of the Americas "can go to hell," too, I couldn't help saying to myself, "I wonder if the president of Venezuela would be saying all these things if the price of oil today were $20 a barrel rather than $60 a barrel, and his country had to make a living by empowering its own entrepreneurs, not just drilling wells."
As I followed events in the Persian Gulf during the past few years, I noticed that the first Arab Gulf state to hold a free and fair election, in which women could run and vote, and the first Arab Gulf state to undertake a total overhaul of its labor laws to make its own people more employable and less dependent on imported labor, was Bahrain. Bahrain happened to be the first Arab Gulf state expected to run out of oil. I couldn't help asking myself: "Could that all just be a coincidence?
The more I pondered these questions, the more it seemed obvious to me that there must be a correlation ---- a literal correlation that could be measured and graphed ---- between the price of oil and the pace, scope and sustainability of political freedoms and economic reforms in certain countries.
I would be the first to acknowledge that this is not a scientific lab experiment, because the rise and fall of economic and political freedom in a society can never be perfectly quantifiable or interchangeable. But I think there is value in trying to demonstrate this very real correlation between the price of oil and the pace of freedom, even with its imperfections.
The First Law of Petropolitics posits the following: The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states. According to the First Law of Petropolitics, the higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more free speech, free press, free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, the rule of law and independent political parties are eroded. And these negative trends are reinforced by the fact that the higher the price goes, the less petrolist leaders are sensitive to what the world thinks or says about them.
I would define petrolist states as states that are both dependent on oil production for the bulk of their exports or gross domestic product and have weak state institutions or outright authoritarian governments. High on my list of petrolist states would be Azerbaijan, Angola, Chad, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Venezuela.
To be sure, professional economists have, for a long time, pointed out in general the negative economic and political impacts that an abundance of natural resources can have on a country. This phenomenon has been variously diagnosed as "Dutch Disease" or the "resource curse." Dutch Disease refers to the process of deindustrialization that can result from a sudden natural resource windfall. The term was coined in the Netherlands in the 1960s, after it discovered huge deposits of natural gas.
What happens in countries with Dutch Disease is that the value of their currency rises, thanks to the sudden influx of cash from oil, gold, gas, diamonds or some other natural resource discovery. That then makes the country's manufactured exports uncompetitive and its imports very cheap. The citizens, flush with cash, start importing like crazy, the domestic industrial sector gets wiped out and, presto, you have deindustrialization.
Beyond these general theories, some political scientists have explored how an abundance of oil wealth, in particular, can reverse or erode democratizing trends. One of the most trenchant analyses that I have come across is the work of UCLA political scientist Michael L. Ross.
Using a statistical analysis from 113 states between 1971 and 1997, Ross concluded that a state's "reliance on either oil or mineral exports tends to make it less democratic; that this effect is not caused by other types of primary exports; that it is not limited to the Arabian Peninsula, to the Middle East, or sub-Saharan Africa; and that it is not limited to small states."
First, Ross argues, there is the "taxation effect." Oil-rich governments tend to use their revenues to "relieve social pressures that might otherwise lead to demands for greater accountability" from, or representation in, the governing authority. Oil-backed regimes that do not have to tax their people in order to survive also do not have to listen to their people or represent their wishes.
The second mechanism, argues Ross, is the "spending effect." Oil wealth leads to greater patronage spending, which in turn dampens pressures for democratization. The third mechanism he cites is the "group formation effect." When oil revenues provide an authoritarian state with a cash windfall, the government can use its newfound wealth to prevent independent social groups ---- precisely those most inclined to demand political rights ---- from forming. In addition, he argues, an overabundance of oil revenues can create a "repression effect," because it allows governments to spend excessively on police, internal security and intelligence forces that can be used to choke democratic movements.
Finally, Ross sees a "modernization effect" at work. A massive influx of oil wealth can diminish social pressures for occupational specialization, urbanization and the securing of higher levels of education ---- trends that normally accompany broad economic development and that also produce a public that is more articulate, better able to organize, bargain and communicate, and endowed with economic power centers of its own.
What I am arguing in positing the First Law of Petropolitics is not only that an overdependence on crude oil can be a curse in general but also that one can actually correlate rises and falls in the price of oil with rises and falls in the pace of freedom in petrolist countries.
An Axis of Oil?
Since 9/11, oil prices have structurally shifted from the $20-$40 range to the $40-$60 range. Part of this move has to do with a general sense of insecurity in global oil markets due to violence in Iraq, Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan, but even more appears to be the result of what I call the "flattening" of the world and the rapid influx into the global marketplace of 3 billion new consumers, from China, Brazil, India and the former Soviet Empire, all dreaming of a house, a car, a microwave and a refrigerator. Without a dramatic move toward conservation in the West, or the discovery of an alternative to fossil fuels, we are going to be in this $40-to-$60 range, or higher, for the foreseeable future.
Politically, that will mean that a whole group of petrolist states ---- with weak institutions or outright authoritarian governments ---- will likely experience an erosion of freedoms and an increase in corruption and autocratic, antidemocratic behaviors.
Consider the drama now unfolding in Nigeria. Nigeria has a term limit for its presidents ---- two four-year terms. President Olusegun Obasanjo came to office in 1999, after a period of military rule, and was then reelected by a popular vote in 2003. When he took over from the generals in 1999, Obasanjo made headlines by investigating human rights abuses by the Nigerian military, releasing political prisoners and even making a real attempt to root out corruption. That was when oil was around $25 a barrel.
Today, with oil at $60 a barrel, Obasanjo is trying to persuade the Nigerian legislature to amend the constitution to allow him to serve a third term. A Nigerian opposition leader in the House of Representatives, Wunmi Bewaji, has alleged that bribes of $1 million were being offered to lawmakers who would vote to extend Obasanjo's tenure.
Very often in petrolist states, not only do all politics revolve around who controls the oil tap, but the public develops a distorted notion of what development is all about. If they are poor and the leaders are rich, it is not because their country has failed to promote education, innovation, rule of law and entrepreneurship. It is because someone is getting the oil money and they are not. People start to think that, to get rich, all they have to do is stop those who are stealing the country's oil.
Geology trumps ideology
With all due respect to Ronald Reagan, I do not believe he brought down the Soviet Union. There were obviously many factors, but the collapse in global oil prices around the late 1980s and early 1990s surely played a key role. And lower oil prices also surely helped tilt the post-Communist Boris Yeltsin government toward more openness to the outside world and more sensitivity to the legal structures demanded by global investors.
Think about the difference between Russian President Vladimir Putin when oil was in the $20-$40 range and now, when it is $40-$60. President Bush said after their first meeting in 2001 that he had looked into Putin's "soul" and saw in there a man he could trust.
If Bush looked into Putin's soul today, it would look very black down there, black as oil. He would see that Putin has used his oil windfall to swallow (nationalize) the huge Russian oil company, Gazprom, various newspapers and television stations, and all sorts of other Russian businesses and once independent institutions.
Although we cannot affect the supply of oil in any country, we can affect the global price of oil by altering the amounts and types of energy we consume. When I say "we," I mean the United States in particular, which consumes about 25 percent of the world's energy, and the oil-importing countries in general.
Thinking about how to alter our energy consumption patterns to bring down the price of oil is no longer simply a hobby for high-minded environmentalists. It is now a national security imperative.
Therefore, any American democracy-promotion strategy that does not also include a credible and sustainable strategy for finding alternatives to oil and bringing down the price of crude is utterly meaningless and doomed to fail. Today, no matter where you are on the foreign-policy spectrum, you have to think like a Geo-Green. You cannot be either an effective foreign-policy realist or an effective democracy-promoting idealist without also being an effective energy environmentalist.
Thomas L. Friedman is a columnist for The New York Times and author of, most recently, "The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century" (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2005). For more articles from Foreign Policy magazine, visit the Web site at www.foreignpolicy.com.
-----------------
The First Law of Petropolitics
By: THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - For The North County Times
When I heard the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declare that the Holocaust was a "myth," I couldn't help asking myself: "I wonder if the president of Iran would be talking this way if the price of oil were $20 a barrel today rather than $60 a barrel."
When I heard Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez telling British Prime Minister Tony Blair to "go right to hell" and telling his supporters that the U.S.-sponsored Free Trade Area of the Americas "can go to hell," too, I couldn't help saying to myself, "I wonder if the president of Venezuela would be saying all these things if the price of oil today were $20 a barrel rather than $60 a barrel, and his country had to make a living by empowering its own entrepreneurs, not just drilling wells."
As I followed events in the Persian Gulf during the past few years, I noticed that the first Arab Gulf state to hold a free and fair election, in which women could run and vote, and the first Arab Gulf state to undertake a total overhaul of its labor laws to make its own people more employable and less dependent on imported labor, was Bahrain. Bahrain happened to be the first Arab Gulf state expected to run out of oil. I couldn't help asking myself: "Could that all just be a coincidence?
The more I pondered these questions, the more it seemed obvious to me that there must be a correlation ---- a literal correlation that could be measured and graphed ---- between the price of oil and the pace, scope and sustainability of political freedoms and economic reforms in certain countries.
I would be the first to acknowledge that this is not a scientific lab experiment, because the rise and fall of economic and political freedom in a society can never be perfectly quantifiable or interchangeable. But I think there is value in trying to demonstrate this very real correlation between the price of oil and the pace of freedom, even with its imperfections.
The First Law of Petropolitics posits the following: The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states. According to the First Law of Petropolitics, the higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more free speech, free press, free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, the rule of law and independent political parties are eroded. And these negative trends are reinforced by the fact that the higher the price goes, the less petrolist leaders are sensitive to what the world thinks or says about them.
I would define petrolist states as states that are both dependent on oil production for the bulk of their exports or gross domestic product and have weak state institutions or outright authoritarian governments. High on my list of petrolist states would be Azerbaijan, Angola, Chad, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Venezuela.
To be sure, professional economists have, for a long time, pointed out in general the negative economic and political impacts that an abundance of natural resources can have on a country. This phenomenon has been variously diagnosed as "Dutch Disease" or the "resource curse." Dutch Disease refers to the process of deindustrialization that can result from a sudden natural resource windfall. The term was coined in the Netherlands in the 1960s, after it discovered huge deposits of natural gas.
What happens in countries with Dutch Disease is that the value of their currency rises, thanks to the sudden influx of cash from oil, gold, gas, diamonds or some other natural resource discovery. That then makes the country's manufactured exports uncompetitive and its imports very cheap. The citizens, flush with cash, start importing like crazy, the domestic industrial sector gets wiped out and, presto, you have deindustrialization.
Beyond these general theories, some political scientists have explored how an abundance of oil wealth, in particular, can reverse or erode democratizing trends. One of the most trenchant analyses that I have come across is the work of UCLA political scientist Michael L. Ross.
Using a statistical analysis from 113 states between 1971 and 1997, Ross concluded that a state's "reliance on either oil or mineral exports tends to make it less democratic; that this effect is not caused by other types of primary exports; that it is not limited to the Arabian Peninsula, to the Middle East, or sub-Saharan Africa; and that it is not limited to small states."
First, Ross argues, there is the "taxation effect." Oil-rich governments tend to use their revenues to "relieve social pressures that might otherwise lead to demands for greater accountability" from, or representation in, the governing authority. Oil-backed regimes that do not have to tax their people in order to survive also do not have to listen to their people or represent their wishes.
The second mechanism, argues Ross, is the "spending effect." Oil wealth leads to greater patronage spending, which in turn dampens pressures for democratization. The third mechanism he cites is the "group formation effect." When oil revenues provide an authoritarian state with a cash windfall, the government can use its newfound wealth to prevent independent social groups ---- precisely those most inclined to demand political rights ---- from forming. In addition, he argues, an overabundance of oil revenues can create a "repression effect," because it allows governments to spend excessively on police, internal security and intelligence forces that can be used to choke democratic movements.
Finally, Ross sees a "modernization effect" at work. A massive influx of oil wealth can diminish social pressures for occupational specialization, urbanization and the securing of higher levels of education ---- trends that normally accompany broad economic development and that also produce a public that is more articulate, better able to organize, bargain and communicate, and endowed with economic power centers of its own.
What I am arguing in positing the First Law of Petropolitics is not only that an overdependence on crude oil can be a curse in general but also that one can actually correlate rises and falls in the price of oil with rises and falls in the pace of freedom in petrolist countries.
An Axis of Oil?
Since 9/11, oil prices have structurally shifted from the $20-$40 range to the $40-$60 range. Part of this move has to do with a general sense of insecurity in global oil markets due to violence in Iraq, Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan, but even more appears to be the result of what I call the "flattening" of the world and the rapid influx into the global marketplace of 3 billion new consumers, from China, Brazil, India and the former Soviet Empire, all dreaming of a house, a car, a microwave and a refrigerator. Without a dramatic move toward conservation in the West, or the discovery of an alternative to fossil fuels, we are going to be in this $40-to-$60 range, or higher, for the foreseeable future.
Politically, that will mean that a whole group of petrolist states ---- with weak institutions or outright authoritarian governments ---- will likely experience an erosion of freedoms and an increase in corruption and autocratic, antidemocratic behaviors.
Consider the drama now unfolding in Nigeria. Nigeria has a term limit for its presidents ---- two four-year terms. President Olusegun Obasanjo came to office in 1999, after a period of military rule, and was then reelected by a popular vote in 2003. When he took over from the generals in 1999, Obasanjo made headlines by investigating human rights abuses by the Nigerian military, releasing political prisoners and even making a real attempt to root out corruption. That was when oil was around $25 a barrel.
Today, with oil at $60 a barrel, Obasanjo is trying to persuade the Nigerian legislature to amend the constitution to allow him to serve a third term. A Nigerian opposition leader in the House of Representatives, Wunmi Bewaji, has alleged that bribes of $1 million were being offered to lawmakers who would vote to extend Obasanjo's tenure.
Very often in petrolist states, not only do all politics revolve around who controls the oil tap, but the public develops a distorted notion of what development is all about. If they are poor and the leaders are rich, it is not because their country has failed to promote education, innovation, rule of law and entrepreneurship. It is because someone is getting the oil money and they are not. People start to think that, to get rich, all they have to do is stop those who are stealing the country's oil.
Geology trumps ideology
With all due respect to Ronald Reagan, I do not believe he brought down the Soviet Union. There were obviously many factors, but the collapse in global oil prices around the late 1980s and early 1990s surely played a key role. And lower oil prices also surely helped tilt the post-Communist Boris Yeltsin government toward more openness to the outside world and more sensitivity to the legal structures demanded by global investors.
Think about the difference between Russian President Vladimir Putin when oil was in the $20-$40 range and now, when it is $40-$60. President Bush said after their first meeting in 2001 that he had looked into Putin's "soul" and saw in there a man he could trust.
If Bush looked into Putin's soul today, it would look very black down there, black as oil. He would see that Putin has used his oil windfall to swallow (nationalize) the huge Russian oil company, Gazprom, various newspapers and television stations, and all sorts of other Russian businesses and once independent institutions.
Although we cannot affect the supply of oil in any country, we can affect the global price of oil by altering the amounts and types of energy we consume. When I say "we," I mean the United States in particular, which consumes about 25 percent of the world's energy, and the oil-importing countries in general.
Thinking about how to alter our energy consumption patterns to bring down the price of oil is no longer simply a hobby for high-minded environmentalists. It is now a national security imperative.
Therefore, any American democracy-promotion strategy that does not also include a credible and sustainable strategy for finding alternatives to oil and bringing down the price of crude is utterly meaningless and doomed to fail. Today, no matter where you are on the foreign-policy spectrum, you have to think like a Geo-Green. You cannot be either an effective foreign-policy realist or an effective democracy-promoting idealist without also being an effective energy environmentalist.
Thomas L. Friedman is a columnist for The New York Times and author of, most recently, "The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century" (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2005). For more articles from Foreign Policy magazine, visit the Web site at www.foreignpolicy.com.
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