Monday, December 3, 2007

Chavez y el CNE admitieron la mentira sin querer ... vean mis calculos

Chavez dice que le gustan los numeros, pero algo no me cuadraba anoche. El CNE y Chavez dijeron que con el 90% de los votos los resultados eran irreversibles. Eso no es el caso, al menos que la diferencia fuese mucho mayor del 1.4% reportado. Un calculo facil demuestra que si en el 10% restante el fuese 58% para el SI y 42% para el NO entoces el SI gana. Segun los datos publicados por el CNE en 7 estados hubo mas de 58% para el SI. Cuando un resultado es tan cerrado 1-2% se espera que los resultado lleguen al 95-98% para decir que eran irreversibles matematicamente. Uds. creen que Chavez aceptaria los resultados si puede todavia ganar con un split de 58/42 del voto restante? En mi opinion, la diferencia era por lo menos de 5% para que matematicamente fueran irreversibles.
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Chavez says that he likes numbers, but something did not match for me last night. The CNE (Election Commission) said that with 90% of the votos the results were irreversible. That's not the case, unless the difference were much more than the 1.4% reported. A quick calculation shows that with the 10% of the votes remaining, those votes for YES (ie. Chavez) needed 58% to overtake the NO. When you have results within 1-2%, usually you wait until 95-98% results come in to claim mathematically irreversible (statistically is differerent). Do you really think that Chavez would have accepted the results if he could still win with a 58% of the remaining vote? In my opinion, the difference was at least of 5% to claim mathematically irreversible.

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